Ohio's 12th District: Danny O'Connor did great, if you don't count losing to Balderson

A friend asked me to call Tuesday's special election between Democrat Danny O'Connor and Republican Troy Balderson to fill the unexpired term of 12 District Congressman Pat Tiberi.

Kasich likes expanded Medicaid while 

Balderson doesn't.

With all the enthusiasm for O'Connor, Franklin County's Recorder, so-called Blue Wave Democrats hope their momentum will crash over the country in November to put a check on President Donald Trump by reclaiming the U.S. House of Representatives.

By the end of the night on special election Tuesday, the blue wave crashed short of winning.

Before midnight, O'Connor trailed Balderson, a state senator, 50.2 percent to 49.3 percent. By fewer than 2,000 votes out of 202,521, according to unofficial voting statistics posted at the Ohio Secretary of State's website, Balderson captured the rural red vote outside of Franklin County, where O'Connor crushed his opponent.

The winning votes for Balderson came from Delaware County, Ohio's fastest growing county for decades, where GOP voters may have been inspired by a visit last week by Trump or by a late endorsement from Gov. John Kasich, who wins coverage by being the anti-Trump dancing bear national media love, as he tries to keep his hopes to be a presidential contender in 2020 alive after he leaves office in just four short months.

Balderson thanked President Trump for his fly-in endorsement as well as Tiberi, who turned down another guaranteed term to take a job in the private sector. 

My election prediction

"When the theory (based on decades of voter statistics) that D turnout in midterms is lower meets the theory that Rs enthralled by Trump will vote for anyone except a D, I think Balderson squeaks out a narrow victory today."

Ohio Republican Party Chairman Jane Timken said in a statement that Balderson's win today reflects the nation's thinking that President Trump is on the right track.

"Tonight, Troy Balderson and the constitutents of Ohio's twelfth congressional district sent a message to Democrats and media pundits across the country. America is on the right track under President Trump and Republican leadership., and the so-called 'blue wave' is nothing more than wishful thinking. Troy Balderson will prove himself to be an incredible Congressman by working tirelessly for his district and come November, will win by an even bigger margin." 

The crescendo of campaigning and the crash of not winning will signal to Republicans that they can win Ohio's other statewide seats in November, especially the open seat for governor, where Richard Cordray, the Democrat, goes up against Mike DeWine, the Republican and current Ohio Attorney General.

Campaign spending by GOP allied sources dwarfed spending by Democratic allies by a 5-1 margin in this special election. Before November 6, the real fall General Election when the winner between O'Connor and Balderson wins a two-year seat in Congress, spending will be even higher when the stakes are the highest.

The O’Connor campaign released the following statement on tonight’s special election victory in OH-12:

“We always knew this was going to be a close race, and while we don’t know the results quite yet, I know that this campaign left it all on the field. There’s a lot at stake this November for the 12th District. The Republican notion that it’s more important to cut taxes for big corporations and the wealthiest among us, flies in the face of our belief that tax relief should be targeted to the working class, and that we should protect Social Security and Medicare benefits instead of showering the uber-rich with new tax cuts they don’t need. No matter what happens next, I’m proud to stand beside the thousands of volunteers who have made this campaign possible.”

Kasich v Trump

Gov. Kasich is as responsible as any politician can be for gerrymandering that took place in Ohio in 2011, when he went along with the terrible tilting of the electoral playing field that has benefited Republicans from then to today.

O'Connor won big in blue Franklin County, but lost, albeit by smaller margins than Trump won the district in 2016 or Mitt Romney won it in 2012.

Can Democrats cheer that the race in a ruby red district was as close as it was today? Yes the can. Can Democrats relish a win in a race that was supposed to verify that the blue wave was waving blue? No they can't.

In close races, it's always nice to win rather than lose. Democrats lost again. They will have another bite at the 12th District in November, but unless they raise more money or hit on issues not hit on before that resonate with more voters, Trump Republicans may be even more energized to not lose this fall. 

Another question to answer is will Kasich, who dislikes Trump, or Trump, who pans Kasich, earn the real laurels for endorsing Balderson? Of all the people Balderson thanked, John Kasich was not one of them.