High court ruling for Husted in voter purging case is bad news for Ohio Democrats

As if Ohio Democrats didn't have enough to worry about this mid-term election cycle, Monday's ruling by the court's conservative justices agreeing that canceling the registration of voters who don't go to the polls and then fail to respond to a state notice sent to them about voting doesn't violate federal provisions that regulate voter registration just might make it impossible for Democrats to win any statewide seat this year.

Former State Sen. Jon Husted, now Ohio's

Secretary of State, is GOP candidate for

governor Mike DeWine's Lt. Gov. running mate.

I have already predicted that Ohio Republicans will sweep Democrats in the fall again this year, which only begs the question of whether the state party is good for anything except local races?

The ruling that will only vindicate what Secretary of State Jon Husted did to "follow to the letter," as Justice Samuel Alito wrote to show how much in agreement the majority was with what Husted did and Attorney General Mike Dewine did to defend the action, that by a different name is "voting caging,' the practice of trapping and tagging unwary voters by mail schemes, but on a state-wide level. Upholding Ohio's voter "list maintenance," practice by Husted and challenged as violating federal voting rights laws, unleashes the kind of purging power that will doom Buckeye Democrats.

Of practical concern is how many Democratic-leaning voters might be purged if one statistic used by the court to measure fall off is valid here. A dissenting Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote that "roughly one in eight voter registrations is 'either invalid or significantly inaccurate.'” She criticized the ruling because she predicts it will disproportionate effect on the poor, the elderly and minorities.

If one-eighth or 12.5 percent is applied to the total number of voters who voted for the party's endorsed candidate Richard Cordray this primary season (428,159), that could mean about 54,000 fewer voters can cast ballots for party candidates.

Immigrantphobic Trumpoids who sent Trump to the White House in 2016 after crushing Hillary Clinton by almost nine percentage points will revel in what the court's ruling could mean for separating the wheat from the chaff among Democrats. The chaff will be tens of thousands of urban dwellers who may fall prey to Ohio's legal list management practice as practiced by Husted, who is running for Lt. Gov. on DeWine's ticket. Guaranteeing “accurate and current” registration lists, as the court ruled Husted is doing, wasn't in violation of both the 2002 Help America Vote Act, directed the states to maintain a system to cull ineligible voters from their lists, or the National Voter Registration Act of 1993.

This could be a recipe from hell for Democrats if the wrong hands are in charge. Husted is directing counties not to purge Ohio voters ahead of the midterm elections, according to reports. In Alito's opinion, Congress indicated that states can remove voters “who have not responded to a notice and who have not voted in 2 consecutive” federal elections are subject to Husted's list maintenance plan. The argument made by plaintiff lawyers that “no registrant may be removed solely by reason of a failure to vote” was dismissed by the majority.

Alito's majority decision said that Ohio followed "the law to the letter," adding, “It is undisputed that Ohio does not remove a registrant on change-of-residence grounds unless the registrant is sent and fails to mail back a return card and then fails to vote for an additional four years."

Sotomayor made the very obvious point the ruling will have on minority voting behavior. She noted that “African-American-majority neighborhoods in downtown Cincinnati had 10% of their voters removed due to inactivity” in the last few years, as “compared to only 4% of voters in a suburban, majority-white neighborhood,” according to Scotusblog. She added that most states have found a way to keep their voter-registration lists accurate without relying on the failure to vote as a trigger for their schemes.

Amy Howe writes that Sotomayor concluded that the ruling will force "these communities and their allies to be even more proactive and vigilant in holding their States accountable and working to dismantle the obstacles they face in exercising the fundamental right to vote.”

Running to replace Husted as Secretary of State, Democratic candidate State Rep. Kathleen Clyde (D-Kent) issued a statement commending Husted for holding off doing the court said he could do. 

"I commend Secretary Husted for directing counties not to purge Ohio voters ahead of the midterm elections," Clyde said after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling. She said it's up to the state to decide how its rolls and it can decide not to purge infrequent voters. 

"The process of purging people for choosing not to vote is properly on hold until after the November election, and it should be postponed indefinitely." 

Based on primary voting statistics published by the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Democrats outvoted Republicans in only 12 of Ohio's 88 counties. By a margin of about 71,000 votes, GOP voters were more motivated to vote than Democrats.

Even though talk of a "Blue wave" earlier this year crashing over the country this fall has become a widely debated topic, the margin between Republicans and Democrats is narrowing so much that the once double-digit Dems had over Republicans is now a single digit. With spending for Republican candidates and against Democratic candidates projected to be massive, the blue wave may ebb before it hits Ohio, where gerrymandered districts may be too high an obstacle for Democrats to overcome this year.