It's The Most Dangerous Time Of The Year

The Christmas season is generally lauded as the most wonderful time of the year, as good cheer and good will abound all around.

Depending on whether you've got a dog in the fight or an iron in the fire in the state legislature after elections are over, the holiday season for many Capital Square agents represents the most dangerous time of the year, as the clock runs out on the current General Assembly (132nd) but before a new two-year clock starts for the incoming 133rd.

The Ohio West entrance to the 

Statehouse in Columbus

Last minute deals, some of which are made in the dark, are real threats to representative democracy. Stuffed into larger and larger bills, these threats taken collectively represent a veritable Christmas tree of gets and thank-you's for past sausage and future recipes.

Gov. Elect Mike DeWine, a Republican, wants to be friends, not enemies, with the incoming Republican-controlled General Assembly so together they can enact laws that the first-term governor and his much younger and future gubernatorial candidate Lt. Governor-elect candidate Jon Husted will use to warrant reelection in 2022.

DeWine—the former state representative, state senator, Lt. Gov and attorney general—knows what can happen in Columbus during lame-duck sessions. Elections are over, but still-seated losers use their vote for what's in their best interest. New winners and returning champs haven't been sworn in yet, so the old guard is still in charge.

What happens next week when the legislature convenes again for the final time after the campaign recess is over, will be another mystery drama that will bring smiles or frowns to many. What bills will make their way to Gov. Kasich's desk, that didn't make the cut over the last two years? More and harsher restrictions on abortion, more wild-west gun law bills like "stand your ground," or other measures that only a right-wing, Trump-loving legislature could love.

Casting for this year's year-end drama comes courtesy of out-going governor John Kasich and his irritable personality disorder, which has earned him media stardom by cultivating his potential as a viable challenger to President Donald Trump in 2020.

Opposing Kasich's dreams of being president is a super-majority, right-wing legislature that has trashed his agenda time and time again, and can do so at will still. Mike DeWine, already transitioning to take over, doesn't want to inherit anything Kasich might want to do on his way out to further advance his fantasy for a 2020 candidacy, that then prevents another unwanted political obstacle for the in-coming administration to overcome.

When a shroud is thrown over the lock, as tradition has it, so legislators don't know what time it is and keeps on working, the witching hour has arrived. The most dangerous time of the year is officially open for business. Kasich players who want to keep their state employment status, with the associated taxpayer funded health care and pension funds, are in the twilight zone between one political leader and another. Despite DeWine and Kasich both being Republicans, they march to the beat of different drummers.

Gov. John Kasich in the Lincoln Room

of the Ohio Statehouse.

Kasich marches in his own lane, as he was proud to say he did when running for president over many months that forced Ohio taxpayers to pay for his many months on the campaign trail outside Ohio. Kasich well-known self-righteous attitude provides ample reason for his fellow party members to withhold their deepest embrace for him.

His outlook for his own hide has always been masked by a sacrosanct call to come together, as he and close advisor Jesus Christ would want it. No slouch on playing the religious card, especially on his strict Catholic-raised opposition to abortion, DeWine has arrived at the apotheosis of his political career. At age 71, DeWine is old enough to know that his age is a natural barrier to any dreams he may harbor of higher office, should that opportunity arise, which it won't. Should age or health impact DeWine going forward, his young, handsome Lt. Governor, Jon Husted, will first say a prayer for DeWine, then thank the Lord for the break to ascend to state CEO.

Students of Kasich knew that after he won in 2010, his ambition would be to run for president in 2016. His second run for president, following his first failed one in 2000, netted him a lopsided win in 2014, when the Democratic candidate imploded and turnout was the lowest since World War II (37%). His 2-1 "big" win gave him the ammunition he needed to join the crowded Republican field. At the end of the race, though, Kasich, who DeWine and every other Republican with Ohio horse sense endorsed for president, got shellacked by Trump and other contenders like Ted Cruz. But the petulant and easily riled Kasich used his reluctance to quit the race earlier, holding on to the very last despite no national numbers to warrant staying in the race, used his great showmanship for media looking for a reliable anti-Trump dancing-bear.

What witches brew of legislative stew will be served up to Gov. Kasich, and what parts will he eat and what will he spit out? What battle will he pitch with a legislature that can override any veto he executes? What anti-women measures will he approve, that will add to his long list of terrible acts against females? What other provisions will he agree to because they sync with his like-wide lopside political ideology that favors corporations over people? Which ones will rile him up enough that opposing them will be a feather in his hat as he leave officing looking for new work? Does he land another high-paid, TV talking-pundit job (he's did that on Fox News). Does he land another big corporate board slot, where he'll earn big bucks for being the former governor of the once great State of Ohio?

Or, as I've long forecasted, will he find a way to become the next president of The Ohio State University, his alma mater? He's appointed many of the university's board members, he can make big bucks, provide jobs for his loyalists, speak to thousands of students as their leader, transition OSU from a land-grant university to a charter institution, and command attention by state and national media. What presidential hopeful wouldn't want that platform to run for president on? There are no term limits for college presidents, so Kasich could run for a third time and lose but know he's still president of one of the biggest universities in the world.

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar

speaks on ODP dinner and fundraiser

And what about the role Democrats play in the most dangerous time of the year? The donkeys have lost so many statewide races over so many years that it's hard to imagine any future candidate can win, especially given the gerrymandered state grid Gov. Kasich and like-minded Republicans put in place in 2011. Current district maps will likely remain mostly intact in 2021, when the Ohio Apportionment Board (controlled by Republicans again) convenes following the 2020 census to map out districts.

For all their failings of message or strategy or tactics, Democrats will have un-winnable maps as their nemesis.

Aside from statewide issues that make the ballot, and Republicans are trying to raise the bar on what citizens can do to end-run the legislature, Democrats are effectively irrelevant. They have lost so many statewide races over so many years that it's hard to imagine any Democrat candidate win any state policy-making position, especially given the gerrymandered state grid Gov. Kasich and like-minded Republicans put in place in 2011, that will likely remain mostly in tact in 2021, the year when the Ohio Apportionment Board convenes following the 2020 census.