Wednesday, December 23, 2009

CBS 60 Minute report on heartache in Wilmington, Ohio from DHL job losses recalls Gift of Magi story

CBS 60 Minute report on heartache in Wilmington, Ohio from DHL job losses recalls Gift of Magi story
December 21, 12:53 AMColumbus Government ExaminerJohn Michael Spinelli
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November 2009 State Unemployment Rates (Photo/CalculatedRiskBlog)

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- The federal prisoner incarcerated in the 1890s at the Ohio penitentiary in Columbus, Ohio, who became known as the author O. Henry, wrote a now-famous story called Gift of the Magi, about a couple who loved each other but whose poverty forced them to give up something they cherished in order to afford the Christmas gift they knew they other wanted, that cannot help but be recalled by anyone who watched the 60 Minutes episode aired Sunday night about the heartache and despair that grips Wilmington, Ohio, a small community whose core was eviserated by the loss of 10,000 jobs but whose spirit awaits a chance, however slim, to rise from the beating it has and continues to take.

CBS 60 Minutes aires episode on Wilmington, Ohio

A transcript of Sunday's program, a follow up to the first one done on Wilmington in Green County, about 30 miles southeast of Dayton, about the desperation that befell the community when its major employer DHL Express closed its domestic delivery service, pictures the community as "exactly the kind of town that Washington hoped to rescue with stimulus spending, cash for clunkers and mortgage relief."

Pelley said "It's one of the unique things about the Great Recession - never before have so many people been out of work for the long term. At least, not since they've starting keeping records back in 1948. Today, 40 percent of all of those who've lost their jobs have been out of work for six months or more."

The 60 Minutes video, with its heartwrenching testimonials from residents of Wilmington who lost their job, their health insurance and in one case a loved one, and who will do anything to survive the economic vortex that will wash them down the drain if help of one kind or another doesn't arrive soon, will create a lump in your throat and tear in your eye.


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Ohio and U.S. Employment Situation (Seasonally Adjusted)

Ohio's unemployment rate was 10.6 percent in November, relatively unchanged from 10.5 percent in October, according to data released this morning by the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services. Ohio's nonfarm wage and salary employment increased 5,400 over the month, from 5,104,000 in October to 5,109,400 in November.

"The number of employed Ohioans rose slightly in November, but not enough to produce a significant change in the unemployment rate," ODJFS Director Douglas Lumpkin said. "An increase in service-providing employment was partially offset by a slight decrease in goods-producing jobs."

The number of workers unemployed in Ohio in November was 623,000, up from 618,000 in October. The number of unemployed has increased by 199,000 in the past 12 months from 424,000. The November unemployment rate for Ohio was up from 7.1 percent in November 2008.

The U.S. unemployment rate for November was 10.0 percent, down from 10.2 percent in October.

Will work for hope

With budget holes near term and in the distance forcing Gov. Ted Strickland to cut government workers or programs or both more than the billions he has already been forced to cut in the first three years of his four-year term, residents of Wilmington have good reason to believe that their is little hope they can believe in anymore.

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Ohio AG Cordray fishes for solution to curb Asian carp from entering Great Lakes

December 21, 11:01 PMColumbus Government ExaminerJohn Michael Spinelli
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COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray announced Monday that the state of Ohio will file a brief in the U.S. Supreme Court seeking to stop the spread of Asian carp, a species of fish he and others consider a major threat to the Great Lakes fishing industry.

Asian carp have been found in the Illinois River, which connects the Mississippi River to Lake Michigan, according to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which found that due to their large size and rapid rate of reproduction, these fish could pose a significant risk to the Great Lakes Ecosystem.

To prevent the carp from entering the Great Lakes, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. EPA, the State of Illinois, the International Joint Commission, the Great Lakes Fishery Commission and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service are working together to install and maintain a permanent electric barrier between the fish and Lake Michigan.

State AGs stop carping, start fishing for solutions

In an email sent to out late in the afternoon today, Cordray, a Democrat running next year for a full four-year term, said Ohio's brief will ask to reopen a prior original action in the U.S. Supreme Court against the state of Illinois, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago.

Cordray's office said it has consulted with Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox -- who is initiating the joint effort by filing an initial petition in the same action today -- and other attorneys general from states adjacent to the Great Lakes.

The man elected in 2006 as Ohio Treasurer but who became Ohio AG after winning a special election last year noted that original actions in the U.S. Supreme Court are "expressly contemplated and authorized in Article III of the U.S. Constitution and have long been perceived as the proper means to peacefully resolve disputes that arise among the sovereign states as a substitute for the original avenues of diplomacy or war."

"We are comfortable putting this matter in the hands of the Supreme Court, which is a neutral arbiter that can hear and evaluate our concerns about protecting the precious natural resources of the Great Lakes against the new threat from this invasive species that has already spread into channels that are dangerously close to Lake Michigan," Cordray said in prepared remarks.

"The impact on the commercial fishing industry and sport fishing as well as the ability of Ohio citizens to enjoy one of the world's most treasured resources would be devastating," he said. By working together to protect the Great Lakes while balancing the important commercial shipping interests that depend upon the connection of the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River, Cordray said he "looks forward to working with Michigan and our other sister states to develop a comprehensive resolution to this difficult challenge as soon as possible."

How did Asian carp get so close to the Great Lakes?

Two species of Asian carp -- the bighead and silver -- were imported by catfish farmers in the 1970's to remove algae and suspended matter out of their ponds. During large floods in the early 1990s, many of the catfish farm ponds overflowed their banks, and the Asian carp were released into local waterways in the Mississippi River basin.

The carp have steadily made their way northward up the Mississippi, becoming the most abundant species in some areas of the River.

What effects might Asian carp have on the Great Lakes?

Asian Carp are a significant threat to the Great Lakes because they are large, extremely prolific, and consume vast amounts of food. They can weigh up to 100 pounds, and can grow to a length of more than four feet. They are well-suited to the climate of the Great Lakes region, which is similar to their native Asian habitats.

Researchers expect that Asian carp would disrupt the food chain that supports the native fish of the Great Lakes. Due to their large size, ravenous appetites, and rapid rate of reproduction, these fish could pose a significant risk to the Great Lakes Ecosystem.

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Husted campaign transparency bill elicits caution from Garrison, call to recall past by Hoke



COLUMBUS, Ohio -- State Senator Jon Husted (R-Kettering), the Ohio GOP's endorsed candidate for Ohio Secretary of State, announced Tuesday that he intends to introduce a bill on campaign transparency that will ensure Ohioans are fully aware of how campaigns are spending money to influence their vote. Husted's bill, known as the Ohio Campaign Transparency Act, would accomplish this goal by requiring that expenditures made by so-called campaign sub-vendors, or third parties who act on behalf of a campaign, are disclosed to the public.

The presumptive Democratic nominee for Ohio Secretary of State next year, Rep. Jennifer Garrison, responded to an offer from this Examiner to comment on the contents of or the politics behind Husted's bill, which likely will sail through the Senate, controlled easily by his party, but encounter a bumpy road in the House, where Garrison's garrison calls the tune on legislative activity.

In separate news related to Ohio campaigns, elections and Sen. Husted, Candice Hoke, a law professor from Cleveland State University who isolated sources have said is evaluating whether the effort by some to draft her into the race for SOS next year is enough to warrant her entering the race, issued a statement today to this Examiner suggesting she can best help improve Ohio elections by not entering the race at this time.

Husted bill to open curtain on campaign sub-vendor information

Husted said through an emailed announcement that campaign committees can currently give money to a sub-vendor, such as a political consultant, to make expenditures on behalf of their campaign. While the campaign committee is required to disclose the amount they gave to the consultant, they are not required, under Ohio campaign finance law, to disclose how the consultant spent the money, according to Husted's prepared remarks.

“The current system allows campaign committees to conceal their expenditures and hide the facts about who is being paid to influence the outcome of elections,” Husted said.

Husted’s legislation requires a campaign committee to report sub-vendor expenditures, and under the bill, sub-vendors will be required to provide an itemized list of expenditures they make on behalf of the campaign. The bill as introduced will require the campaign committee to also include that itemized list on their expenditure report.

The first-term senator, who as recently as last year was the Speaker of the House, and who is the Ohio GOP's endorsed candidate to reclaim the important Office of Ohio Secretary of State in 2010, said his bill "would provide greater transparency in how money is being used in campaigns and help restore Ohioans’ confidence in the outcome of our elections."

Husted challenger Garrison calls for extension of transparency to issue advocacy groups

Garrison, responding from her home district after the Ohio General Assembly recessed after both chambers came to an agreement on how to fill a gaping hole in the state budget last week, said that while she supports legislation that provides more transparency in the campaign finance arena, she needs to review the specifics of the bill carefully before commenting on it in detail.

What Garrison told this Examiner she finds interesting about Husted's ostensible motivation for introducing the bill, was that it was her understanding, from records unearthed from newspapers on Husted's ascension to the job of Speaker of the House, that some of his election-year help came via what she labeled a "shady non-profit called Citizens for Conservative Values (CCV)," an organization she said "hid its donors" while claiming it was "created to promote public policy, not Husted for Speaker."

Garrison, who continues to add to her endorsements despite not being officially endorsed by the Ohio Democratic Party, said newspaper reports showed that "CCV’s consultants were political operatives tied to Husted who were in line for large bonuses if Husted was installed as Speaker." She said Husted "severed his ties to CCV only after newspapers began questioning him about the group and its tactics."

His new legislation, she said, "appears to have merit, but the enhanced disclosure requirements should extend to so-called issue advocacy groups like CCV.” The problem of sub-vendor transparency, she said, was brought to light during the recent campaign to amend Ohio’s Constitution to allow for casino-style gambling in the state. If Ohio were to pass Husted's bill or a version of it, Garrison pointed to a campaign disclosure law database managed by UCLA that shows there are currently 24 states whose disclosure laws require some form of sub-vendor disclosure.

Garrison hopes to replace current Ohio SOS Jennifer Brunner, who party officials and supporters thought would seek a second term next year but who has instead chosen to engage in an internecine party battle with Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in next year's Democratic primary to determine which one can beat Rob Portman, the GOP's endorsed candidate to pick up where retiring two-term U.S. Senator George Voinovich left off.

But whether Garrison remains the front-runner for the job to be Ohio's chief elections official has yet to be seen, as rumors percolate that another viable Democratic alternative may yet appear, or that Brunner will decide, with considerable pressure from Gov. Ted Strickland, officials of the Ohio Democratic Party and political operatives from the White House who think she can do herself and Ohio Democrats a favor by rethinking her run for the Senate, to stand down against Fisher and run for a second term as SOS and a chance to reclaim control of the Ohio Apportionment Board and its powers to redrawing districts for the next decade.

Hoke on Ohio elections and Sen. Husted's run for SOS

In a statement emailed to this Examiner Tuesday, Hoke said, "All Ohioans should be legitimately concerned that the 2010 statewide ballot include qualified candidates who can and will represent Ohio citizens over partisan and special interests. I am deeply honored that proponents of fair and equitable elections have encouraged me to consider running for Secretary of State, but I believe that I can best serve my fellow citizens by continuing to work in other roles for fair, verifiably accurate, fiscally prudent, and proficiently conducted elections both here in Ohio and nationally."

Hoke, a national expert on elections and election security, said one of the "biggest threats to Ohio citizens’ interests comes from those who talk cynically and deceptively about achieving impartial and accountable elections and redistricting procedures" and proceeded to invoke the name of Republican nominee John Husted, who as Speaker of the Ohio House, she said "regularly tried to game Ohio’s elections systems for his party’s narrow political advantage."

"All Ohio voters — Democrats, Republicans, and independents — have a stake in honest elections and a redistricting process that is administered in a nonpartisan manner. Husted’s promises as a candidate for Secretary of State must be seen in the light of his past record. Voters and the media should look closely to determine whether the leopard’s new spots aren’t merely an election year paint job."

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Friday, December 11, 2009

Ohio financial report warns Gov. Strickland pace of recovery will be slow



December 10, 11:42 PMColumbus Government ExaminerJohn Michael Spinelli

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- What has become a sobering dose of sour financial news assembled by the director of budget and management and sent to Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland each monthly, did not disappoint Thursday, as numbers contained in the report about declining jobs, the lengthening of time people are unemployed and shortfalls in various tax categories show the first-term governor that the pace of recovery will continue to be slow and underscore how bumpy his run for re-election next year will be.

Ohio, regional states out pace nation on job declines

J. Pari Sabety, Strickland's budget guru, issued a report showing Ohio's percent of job losses (-4.6%) outpaced that of the nation as a whole (-3.6%) but was reflective of job loss percentage for regional, neighboring states, like Michigan (6.4%), Indiana (5.2%), Kentucky (4.4%), Pennsylvania (-3.2%), West Virginia (2.9%). For all states outside the region, the decline was 3.9 percent.

National unemployment is now at 10 percent, but the loss of jobs at 11,000 is the best monthly showing since the economic downturn began in December of 2007.

Sabety's report said that "although we should be encouraged by recent signs and signals from leading indicators, the consensus among forecasters is that the pace of recovery will be slow."

In the broadest measure of unemployment, which includes marginally attached workers -- workers who are neither employed nor actively searching for a job but indicate that they would like to work -- and workers employed part-time because they cannot find a full time job, the report pegged this figure at 17.2 percent.

Further gloomy news on the jobs front said the median duration of unemployment increased to a new all time high of 20.1 week in October. From 1967-2007, that figure averaged just 7.1 weeks, and had never been higher than 12.3 weeks, recorded 1983. Moreover, the average duration of unemployment increased to a new all time high of 28.5 weeks.

Strickland stuck with defending big job loss numbers

The national loss of 41,000 manufacturing jobs lead other sector like trade, transportation and utilities and construction.

Ohio employment edged higher, the report said, with the addition of 1,499 jobs in October but still remains near it slow. For Strickland, a Democratic governor running for reelection next year against a Republican challenger who for the first time out polls him, the loss of of 243,200 jobs, or 4.6%, during the 12 months ending in October will be brought up time and time again as statistical proof Ohio can do better under a different leader.

Among the state's 11 metropolitan statistical areas year over year for October, only Sandusky added jobs (400). The losses for selected cities during the same timer period were Cleveland (-55,500), Cincinnati (-41,200), Columbus (-17,200), Toledo (-15,900), Dayton (-14,500), Akron (-14,300).

Don't count on consumer spending to rally recovery

At $25.1 million, or 2.2%, on the upside of estimates, last month's tax receipts were a plus but still close to expectations. Weakness in revenue from categories like the corporate franchise tax, non auto sales, public utility and kilowatt hour taxes were offset slightly by stronger than expected performance in the personal income and cigarette tax.

With the Christmas seasons bearing down on us, the label used in the report to describe expectations for shopping was "ominous," which supported the description of consumer attitudes as "mixed."

One way to look on the bright side of an otherwise gloomy report is to say that we're not flat on our backs anymore, but we have a long way to go before we can stand upright again.

One sign that consumers are mixed in their feelings is the realization that consumer installment credit outstanding decreased again in September and is down $125.7 billion, or 4.9 percent, from the July 2008 peak, a dive the report said is the largest decline since WWII in both dollar and percentage terms.

State to spend billions more from stimulus funds

As for receiving and spending stimulus dollars from Washington, of the $8.2 billion that Ohio is expected to receive during this three-year program, approximately $2.19 billion has been received, but only about a quarter, or $2.14 billion of it, has been expended.

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Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Toll of Polls on Obama, Strickland show national, Ohio rating slides

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Candidate Barack Obama speaks to Ohio voters in Westervile
outside Columbus in 2008. (Photo/John Michael Spinelli

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Polls out Wednesday show President Barack Obama, who clinched his win of the White House last year when he carried Ohio, and Buckeye State Gov. Ted Strickland, who was elected to the top spot along with other Democrats who took back state offices in 2006, the popularity they once enjoyed has been short lived, as polling numbers released by both Quinnipiac University and Rasmussen Reports show.

Quinnipiac Poll shows cracks in Obama armor widening

The Quinnipiac Poll shows Obama has fallen in popularity with voters nationwide from a high of 59 percent in June to 46 percent today. The number of Americans who now disapproving of his job performance is 44 percent, two percent below those giving him a thumbs up, which it self is two percent below the 48 percent in November who were on his side.

Obama still has three more years to turn voters around enough to win a second term. The same is not true for Ohio Gov. Strickland, who is already gearing up for the bruising battle he'll have to wage with his endorsed GOP-rival, John Kasich.

Rasmussen report a cause for worry for Strickland

The numbers for that match-up contained in a poll released by Rasmussen Reports, show Strickland (pictured here at this year's Ohio State Fair), who won 61 percent of the vote in 2006 but who has struggled with a state on the rocks from a combination of revenue shortfalls, is now nine percent behind Kasich, whose campaign slogan is he is a "new way and a new day."

Leading up to their reporting, Rasmussen paints a partial picture of the state of the state in Ohio. Unemployment is at 10.5 percent, a budget hole of nearly $900 looms as Strickland and Senate Republicans Roman wrestle on how to close it and thousands of manufacturing and construction jobs continue to disappear each month.

With sentiment against deficit spending, and incumbents like Obama and Strickland who have few viable options to turn things around, as the former Congressman said he would do in 2006, and who say without government spending the abyss they say they see in the rear view mirrors would have swallowed them alive, the electoral climate for a candidate like Strickland could be very bad for his political health.

For Strickland, Rasmussen says he wins support from just 69 percent of the state’s Democratic voters and trails by 25 percentage points among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Adding to Strickland’s woes, they note, is a very public disagreement with the Ohio Legislative Black Caucus.

The Rasmussen Poll shows Strickland attracting only 71 percent (71%) of the black vote, and reports that only 13 percent (13%) of African-American voters say they will vote against the governor. Fifteen percent remain undecided in the poll. The polling group that poll watchers say leans more right than others, says it's likely that the Democratic candidate (Strickland) will "eventually win much better support from the black community statewide."

Forty-eight percent (48%) of all voters in the state still approve of the way Strickland is handling his job, while 50% disapprove. Those figures include 11% who Strongly Approve and 24% who Strongly Disapprove.

Obama's job approval rating continues to slide and it's evident the deterioration stems from voter unhappiness over domestic policy matters," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. He says that while the decline in Obama's overall approval in the last month has been small, with the exception of independent voters, who went from three points negative to 14 points. "If the trend continues, it won't be long before he (Obama) could be in the unenviable position of having more Americans disapprove than approve of his job performance."

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Monday, December 07, 2009

Ohio Gov. Strickland, rail bosses should read, heed Gravy Train report by public integrity group

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- When President Barack Obama announced earlier this year that he thought America should be able to build high speed trains like other transportation savvy countries have done, the frenzy to grab some of the $8 billion in federal stimulus funding he offered has created its own job market, one full of hungry lobbyists, new lobbying groups, vested interest consultants and planners who don't want to miss this funding train, even if the slow train to the past they're backing doesn't actually leave a station for years or maybe even decades to come.

Asking the question that begs asking, Matthew Lewis, writing for The Center for Public Integrity (CPI), posits that Washington's newest gravy train has already created nearly 1,800 interest groups who "want something" from a new transportation bill whose price tag of $50 billion is so awesome that while it presents a feeding opportunity for backers of status quo transportation, it may turn out that the rising tide of anti-debt sentiment may wash it away until another day and price point can be reached.

Lewis and CPI found that more than 50 public and private groups explicitly lobbied on high-speed rail policy last quarter, a three-fold increase from a year ago. Even that number, he says, fails to capture dozens of other "actors likely lobbying on high-speed rail that keep their specific lobbying targets as vague as Washington does its spending plans."

Making his case for too many projects chasing to few funds, Lewis reminds his readers that at least 34 states including Ohio submitted proposals valued at $57 billion chasing an initial $8 billion allocation. First round funding announcements are expected this winter or no later than spring, according to a rail expert at Parsons Brinckerhoff Ohio hired to help with $564 million quick-start plan submitted to the FRA in early October.

The 3-C Corridor plan, so called because it links Ohio's three major cities -- Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland -- may get off to a slow start despite the hoopla rail chiefs and their boosters are drumming up because, as a peripheral line to the Midwestern Hub system, other projects in other states are more important, at least during the first round of HSR funding.

With California and Florida asking for more than half the $8 billion, Ohio will be lucky to receive the $564 million it asked for. And even if it does, the little matter of maybe another $200 million more for Positive Train Control technology has to be dealt with, because when sharing a freight rail track, accidents do happen, as the fatal crash in Los Angeles showed the world. And Mr. Pasterak, the consultant from PB hired by Ohio rail bosses, said PST and its costs were not a part of the state's quick start proposal.

Notwithstanding what can only be viewed as an intentional oversight -- freight companies, who are mandated by the FRA to must have PST installed by the end of 2015 are looking to passenger rail systems like the 3-C to pay for it -- deliver of train sets anytime soon -- as soon as Gov. Strickland told Bloomberg TV last week, which is by 2011 -- could also throw the project off track.

Ohio rail chiefs have bet the passenger train ranch on taking delivery of train sets from a failed Colorado railroad car company, whose buyers of distressed companies want to move to a suburb of Columbus if millions in state and federal funding arrive to build a new facility on brownfield land that doesn't have a rail spur running to it. Some watchers have questioned why state forces are lining up behind this land when other, better venues exist in other parts of the state.

Should the 3-C line lumber forward, its conventional train technology -- despite using a dual mode diesel engine -- will still produce a train whose average speed will be a turtle-paced 39 mph, a speed maybe not to different from the speed of the first train to run the 3-C route in 1852, two years after trains were introduced in the Buckeye State. The 3-C corridor, which hasn't seen a passenger train run it since 1972, is about 255 miles in length.

Buckeye rail bosses have beat the drum for this slow, expensive train, that even if its built, based on its projected schedule of runs, will strand riders starting in Cincinnati or Cleveland in another city, mostly likely Columbus, it's too slow to do a roundtrip in the same day. State rail bosses and their consultants admit that a full-route one-way journey will take about six and one-half hours.

Good trip to download War and Peace to your Kindle.

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Friday, December 04, 2009

Economic recovery in Ohio to take years, demand action by politicians, OSU report says


Economic recovery in Ohio to take years, demand action by politicians, OSU report says

December 4, 12:32 PMColumbus Government ExaminerJohn Michael Spinelli
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COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Recessions from a generation ago are very different from today's Great Recession, so say a trio of researchers from The Ohio State University, who opined in their report on growth and change in Ohio that inaction by state leaders like Gov. Ted Strickland and lawmakers will only prolong what they predict is already shaping up to be a long jobless recovery.

Ohio families and communities will be further strained as the state tries to recover some of its manufacturing might lost since the 1970s, which has resulted in whole industries either never returning to their original levels of employment activity or being permanently destroyed.

If the recent past is our guide, Mark Partridge, Swank Professor of Rural-Urban Policy in the Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, who led the study with his two other co-authors, Xuetao Huang and Tripti Uprety, said the future economic recovery will be quite feeble, with very slow job creation. Partridge and company concluded that "this drawn out 'jobless' recovery will strain Ohioans and the communities they live in."

Previous job losses could cushion more job losses

The trio said it took 46 months for the nation to recovery from the last recession in 2001 but said Ohio's total employment never did recover. They said the damage to Ohio's manufacturing sector and the families and communities that once relied so heavily on it will have less adverse impacts now because, since 1970, the sector has been in serious decline.

Ironically, they say Ohio is much better placed to prosper in the long-run if it is able to make fundamental changes to enhance its economic potential. They warn, however, that wholesale change will require that the state let go of its traditional litany of excuses for its relative poor economic performance. Contrary to some who argue that the decline of the Detroit Three auto producers has particularly hurt Ohio over the last 40 years, the researchers show that Ohio’s so-called exposure to the auto sector is "simply not large enough to explain its poor performance."

Their research showed that Ohio’s recovery pattern tends to be more severe in downturn, and job growth tends to lag the nation in recovery. They caution that while Ohio’s job declines are still less than that in 1981-82, the labor market may need longer than 1981-82 to recover. The implications for Ohio’s businesses and governments is that it "may take many years for tax revenue to recover and for businesses to regain a good footing. "Many families will face prolonged challenges, which will spread to our broader communities," they wrote, adding, "Clearly, in going forward, Ohioans should plan on continued belt tightening."

The good, bad and ugly of "creative destruction"

The good news about the bad news about the painful loss of manufacturing jobs is that it's almost over because Ohio has lost so many manufacturing jobs that there really are not that many more to lose. "Even if Ohio were to lose every remaining manufacturing job (which it will not), there will be fewer lost jobs in manufacturing than what has occurred since the early 1970s. The upside of losing so many jobs manufacturing jobs previously is that Ohio "will be less sensitive to economic downturns than in the past due to the cyclical nature of manufacturing."

They say “creative destruction,” where the loss of declining industries frees up resources (labor and capital alike) to be employed in expanding and emerging industries by shifting resources to producing products that have higher returns increases living standards, is alive and well in Ohio.

Based on their results showing many lost jobs in Ohio will not return, their painful but sobering conclusion is that it may take many years for the "economy to return to something resembling widespread prosperity." For Ohio this means families and communities will continue to face numerous challenges for many years into the future.

As for government, they predict all levels of Ohio government "will have difficult times in balancing their budget, with resulting implications for important social services, education, and infrastructure provision." Moreover, continued shortfalls in education and infrastructure provision could "further impair future economic growth."

With manufacturing being one-third of what it was in the early 1970s, the bitter good news for Ohio is that the state may be breaking out of a pattern where its downturns are more severe than the country as a whole and its recoveries are sluggish.

Two cups of hope

The authors offer up one more cup of hope and caution for residents and political leaders. They opine that Ohio employers likely overreacted during the peak of the crisis during the winter of 2009 by laying off too many workers. Due to this overreaction, they say employers may have to re-hire workers faster to meet growing demand. But if recent trends continue, they warn again, Ohio’s labor market will be very sluggish for many years in the future.

For political leaders, they say it would be "an even bigger shame if the economic downturn further distracts Ohio’s politicians and leaders from making favorable structural changes that could avert many of these problems in the future."

The cost of inaction is that this long painful process will be followed by more painful restructuring. Happy holidays!

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Thursday, December 03, 2009

Ohio 6th among states in fallen soldiers in Iraq, Afghanistan


Ohio 6th among states in fallen soldiers in Iraq, Afghanistan

December 2, 2:11 AMColumbus Government ExaminerJohn Michael Spinelli
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The gravestones at Arlington National Cemetery are
graced by U.S. flags each Memorial Day
(Photo/Wikipedia).

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- While West Point cadets listened with rapt attention Tuesday evening to President Barack Obama as he outlined his plan to send an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan as the key element in his way forward there and in Pakistan, let us not forget that 208 Ohioans have already died serving their country in Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom and that that number may rise in the months and years to come.

Ohio 6th among states in faces of the fallen

Ohio, still the 7th largest state in the nation, ranks 6th among states in the number of its citizens who have given their life to serve their country in a time of war. Statistics compiled on the faces of the fallen by the Washington Post show California leading all states with 554 deaths, followed by Texas with 463, Florida with 242 and Pennsylvania and New York with 233.

"I do not make this decision lightly," President Obama said in a solemn but determined manner. He said he opposed the war in Iraq precisely because he believes the U.S. "must exercise restraint in the use of military force, and always consider the long-term consequences of our actions."

Among Ohio's many cities, the largest number (13) of the 208 fallen soldiers to date called Cincinnati and Columbus home, while nine hailed from Cleveland and five from Canton.

President Obama said he understands the toll the nation's two wars have taken on America's families. "As President, I have signed a letter of condolence to the family of each American who gives their life in these wars. I have read the letters from the parents and spouses of those who deployed. I visited our courageous wounded warriors at Walter Reed. I've traveled to Dover to meet the flag-draped caskets of 18 Americans returning home to their final resting place. I see firsthand the terrible wages of war. If I did not think that the security of the United States and the safety of the American people were at stake in Afghanistan, I would gladly order every single one of our troops home tomorrow."

No doubt many of the family and friends of Ohio's 208 fallen soldiers would rather have their loved ones back in their homes and hearts than have a letter of condolence from America's Commander in Chief extolling their dedication and courage.

Ohio senators Voinovich and Brown comment on Obama's plan

U.S. Sen. George V. Voinovich, R-Ohio, said, “Our strategic plan must include all instruments of American power — humanitarian, diplomatic and military. Military force alone cannot do it all in Afghanistan, but we can help create a secure environment in which the Afghan people can work to achieve a stable government and viable economy.”

U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, said that while he was encouraged that the president laid out clear goals and a responsible timeline for completion, “I remain skeptical about a commitment of 30,000 of our service men and women. I do not want a long commitment of troops in the region and I am concerned with the dramatic costs to human life and to military families.”

Let us all hope and pray that the way forward is kinder to Ohio servicemen than the way to this day has been.

Follow me on Twitter @ohionewsbureau. Read more stories on Ohio people, politics and government here.

Ohio's faces of the fallen

Obama remarks on way forward

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GOP lawmakers give Gov. Strickland a choice: Cut a deal with us or cut education funding


GOP lawmakers give Gov. Strickland a choice: Cut a deal with us or cut education funding

December 1, 4:02 PMColumbus Government ExaminerJohn Michael Spinelli
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William G. Batchelder, House
Minority Leader (Photo/Ohio House)

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- The Republican president of the Ohio Senate, who said yesterday that he needs more convincing by Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland and allied Democrats on details related to renewal of a popular technology fund before he can endorse it to voters, was joined Tuesday by House Republican Leader William Batchelder of Medina, who said he also needs more time to learn whether a plan being proposed by House Democrats to renew the Third Frontier diverges significantly from past practices in a way that could further hurt the state's debt position or its credit rating.

Batchelder, Harris, GOP allies try to corner Strickland on budet fix

“It has come to our attention that for more than half a year the House Democrats have been drafting, working and reworking with their possible contributors on an arbitrary rewrite of the Third Frontier program," Batchelder (R-69th) said in prepared remarks.

Batchelder, a long-time fiscal conservative who returned to the House in 2007 after previously logging 30 years there and who could easily culminate his political career by becoming the next House Speaker if Republicans take back next year the few seats they lost in 2008, complained of the sparse time he and his caucus were given to fathom the ramifications of the bill before it comes to a vote.

He said Republicans are "uncertain of the details within the Democrat proposal, since we have not received it" and commented that the skeleton outline minority party members received "differs significantly from the original Third Frontier proposal," a high-tech funding initiative created by former two-term Gov. Bob Taft.

Batchelder, whose conspicuous eyeglasses are as much a part of his distinctive style as rock 'n roll legend Buddy Holley's black rimmed glasses were to him, said the original proposal for the Third Frontier program was a $1.6 billion dollar investment over 10 years with an average of $160 million per year and several sources of funding including a $500 million bond issuance, tobacco settlement money, General Revenue Fund (GRF) and excess liquor profits.

He said the current proposal calls for twice the bonds in half the time. He noted that $1 billion over five years produces an average cost of $200 million per year. "This is a departure from the original balanced proposal that bears further scrutiny," Batchelder said.

Batchelder said that to fully expose all ramifications of this critical proposal as it stands today, he and his caucus need more time to study and consult with bond counsel. Echoing a talking point from comments Senate President Bill Harris made yesterday that included concern for Ohio's debt payment burden and appetite by voters to take on yet more debt, Batchelder said he is "committed to protecting Ohio’s bond rating" and expressed worry about Ohio's credit rating taking another hit due to an unbalanced budget he laid squarely at the feet of Strickland, and by extension, his Democratic allies in the legislature.

He said that as soon as "the majority party provides us with the details of their proposal," he and his GOP caucus will "work across party lines just as we did with the extension of COBRA benefits in the transportation budget earlier this General Assembly.”

As Batchelder joins Harris in a political pincer movement against Strickland and colleagues, it came as no surprise that two Republican State Senators, Tom Niehaus of New Richmond and Bill Seitz of Green Township, told the Cincinnati Enquirer in an editorial board meeting Monday that Gov. Strickland can "either cut a deal with Ohio Senate Republicans to fill an $851 million budget hole in December or risk having to slash public education funding in a year when he is running for re-election."

Seitz, Niehaus give Strickland a Hobson's Choice: Cut a deal with us or cut education funding

To fill this yawning budget hole, Strickland wants to suspend the final year of a five-year cut in personal income taxes, a choice supported by his Democratic allies in the legislature and by an odd-couple assortment of business groups who normally follow the lead of GOP-centric interests.

Seitz and Niehaus told Enquirer staff that they are willing to give Strickland two-thirds of the tax-cut freeze he and supports have chosen as the best of a bad set of choices to fix this budget hole.

"We offered this as an alternative, expecting a discussion and instead it produced a hissy fit on the part of the governor,'' said Seitz, who is known for his rapier wit and ability to translate a complex issue into layman's language. "The governor said it would be his plan or nothing."

But the big problem Seitz and Niehaus have is that their own plan lacks enough support from their own majority caucus (21-12) to pass. For it to pass, all 12 Democrats would have to vote for it and that is beyond even fantasy.

The standoff between Strickland and legislative Republicans cannot last forever, for various reasons. One of those reasons, as articulated by Seitz and Niehaus, is that after Dec. 31, Strickland's tax cut plan turns into a pumpkin again, as it will be impossible under state law for Strickland to delay the scheduled income tax break. Then, the two said, Strickland would likely have to cut state funding for public education by 10 to 15 percent.

"I think we will come to an agreement, because (Strickland) doesn't want to have to do a 10 percent cut to schools when he's trying to run for re-election as the 'education governor,''' Seitz told the Enquirer editorial board.

For his part, a spokeswoman for Strickland told Howard Wilkinson that "the governor's door is open to any reasonable and realistic proposal.'' But for what Seitz and Niehaus are proposing, the word from Strickland is that it "does not qualify" because it "spends money we do not have".

Follow me on Twitter @ohionewsbureau. Read more stories on Ohio people, politics and government here.

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