Monday, August 31, 2009

Ohio Debt Rating Decline Linked to Stimulus Bucks, Loss of Manufacturing Jobs


Ohio Debt Rating Decline Linked to Stimulus Bucks, Loss of Manufacturing Jobs

Buckeye State Leader in Loss of Manufacturing Jobs

Y-2-Y Revenues Off by 11%


by John Michael Spinelli

August 31, 2009

COLUMBUS, OHIO: The same effect experienced by a borrower whose credit card score is negatively affected by undisciplined borrowing and the borrowers diminished ability to pay off their balance in full in a reasonable time is having a similar affect on on Ohio.

Noting decisions to delay $736 million in debt payments by relying on one-time federal economic stimulus funding and on estimated revenue from expanding gambling, a controversial initiative that could further be compromised if legal challenges filed against it gain traction, Moody's Investor Services said its decision last week to reduce its rating of Ohio borrowing from the second-highest to the third-highest was a reflection of its concern that Ohio's budget could experience even rougher seas in the future when federal funds evaporate and gamblers don't lose as much as projected.

While Moody's is concerned about the future, its rating decision also reflected its concern for the past, as reflected in the tremendous number of manufacturing jobs lost in Ohio over time and in just the last twelve months.

For that story, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and published in the Atlanta Business Chronicle show Ohio led all other states in the loss of manufacturing jobs over a period of one year. For Ohio, its loss of 127,000 manufacturing jobs topped all other states. Its closest rivals in loss were California (123,400) and Michigan (108,900).

Ohio clearly has fewer resources at its disposal to maintain superior borrowing rates. Once an industrial titan of the Midwest whose once well-developed industrial might was the envy of other states and nations, Ohio has lost many battles over the years as its manufacturing base continues to tumble in size from its salad days of being a leader in labor-intensive industries like steel, rubber and glass that among other important industries made Ohio a good place to raise a family and locate a business.

Ohio communities could once count on manufacturing jobs as the bread and butter of their livelihood. Ohio's state budget was similarly blessed by revenue from these and other industries and the workers who pushed them forward that could be transformed into good roads, strong bridges, institutions of education and infrastructure that attracted families and businesses alike.

But with the state budget under attack from cliff-diving revenues exacerbated by business leaving the state and workers looking elsewhere for greener pastures, Ohio seems hard pressed to turn the tide by reclaiming a future that reflects its prosperous past. Even though its two-year state budget of $50.5 billion is still considerable when compared to budgets from other states, the across-the-board pain it delivered to individuals and agencies was considerable.

If the prospect of 30-40,000 more Ohioans losing their jobs due to state budget cuts becomes reality, the added grief that will be visited on Ohio families will be like rubbing salt into an already open wound of a bleeding budget waiting for a transfusion that may not arrive for years.

Response to such news by the Governor's office say the state's rating "continues to be solid despite the national economic downturn" and note as proof of that that "the latest outlook change did not affect the cost of issuing coal-development bonds recently."

"The long-running structural changes affecting Ohio's economy indicate that the state may have difficulty recovering jobs in tandem with national trends as the recession ends," the report said, according to the AP article.

According to the August 11th Monthly Report on Ohio's Economy and State Finances, "Ohio’s economy has begun to see signals of the beginning of a weak recovery from the deepest downturn experienced in the past 50 years." The report stated that as the national recession eases a bit, a weaker than average recovery is expected to begin as early as the end of this summer. "The pace of economic recovery in Ohio will depend heavily on the fate of the motor vehicle industry," a reference to the fates of General Motors and Chrysler, two Detroit-based firms with large numbers of workers in Ohio, who went into and emerged from federal bankruptcy court.

The unemployment rate in June for Ohio was 11.1 percent, the report noted, a figure it said would continue to "show a downward trend throughout July." Consumer confidence also decreased somewhat in July, but the trend still appears to be improving relative to the extreme lows registered in February, it said. Also, for the first time in nine months, Ohio’s total tax receipts exceeded estimates. However, the real news is that "year-over-year performance is still 11 percent below the July 2008 levels."

John Michael Spinelli is a Certified Economic Development Financing Professional, business and travel writer and former credentialed Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is registered to lobby in Ohio and is the Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. Spinelli on Assignment is syndicated by Newstex.com and is available for subscription (99 cents/month) to Kindle owners. His tweets on Twitter can be followed @OhioNewsBureau. To send a news tip or to make a comment, email him at: ohionewsbureau@gmail.com




















































































































































































Thursday, August 27, 2009

Ohio Spending Panel OKs $200K More for Slow Train to the Past Project


Ohio Spending Panel OKs $200K More for Slow Train to the Past Project

Outsourced California Rail Study Firm Outsources Work to $300/hour Consultant


State Spending Priorities Called into Question as Initial 3C Rail Study Reaches $650,000

by John Michael Spinelli

August 27, 2009

COLUMBUS, OHIO: The split vote last Monday by a bi-partisan legislative spending panel, over whether Ohio rail chiefs should be given another $200,000 on top of the $450,000 they received in late March to fund a California firm's assessment of the capacity and capital costs associated with Gov. Ted Strickland's idea to start running passenger rail trains between Cincinnati and Cleveland, raises questions of whether this project has merit at a time when Ohio's budget is under terrible pressure and if the Controlling Board will become a back-door to increased agency funding reduced during the regular budget cycle?

The Controlling Board, housed in the Ohio Department of Budget and Management and controlled by the administration of Democratic Gov. Strickland, is an insider's agency that rarely gains coverage by the media other than when spending on hot topics like casino gambling, slot machines or special counsel for special projects comes before its bi-weekly schedule. Ohio news media did take note that state agencies whose funding was reduced in the recently completed budget cycle, that ended on July 17 when Strickland signed a budget some say will lead to thousands fewer state workers and job losses by agencies whose state funding was cut sharply, are using the sleepy spending panel as a back-door method to add to their budgets.

In the case of the request by the Ohio Department of Development (ODOT) and its captive rail agency, The Ohio Rail Development Commission (ORDC) that asked for and received another $200,000 for critical work its needs before it can apply for high-speed rail (HSR) funds from Washington on October 2, the Controlling Board may find itself in the news more often as it becomes a new battleground to tussle over projects that really do need more funding or whether projects like the 3C railroad project, that Republicans in general and Republicans on this panel in particular say is not only not in demand but will spend precious dollars that could be spent on more pressing priorities, like funding food banks, children's health programs, libraries, services for the elderly and the sick, should slow down and wait for better times or better train technology.

Public information submitted (#90) to the Controlling Board by ODOT/ORDC to add another $200,000 to the $450,000 the panel approved in late March, shows the small, four-person California firm, Woodside Consulting, that state officials said they had chosen to perform analysis of the "capacity and capital costs" associated with the re-establishment of passenger rail trains along a 250-mile route connecting Cincinnati with Cleveland with stops in Columbus and Dayton along the way because only they could do it, will now outsource the state's outsourced work to other consultants, one of whom will charge $300/hour, a rate that even high-priced lawyers doing special counsel work for the Ohio Attorney General would envy.

Calls for comments to the three Republicans who voted against the rail consulting funding request Monday, State Senators John Carey (17th Dist), Mark Wagoner (2nd District) and House Representative Jay Hottinger (71st District), were not returned to Spinelli on Assignment in time for this column. However, a staffer for Hottinger who said he was familiar with his boss's general thoughts on the issue of high speed rail, said his boss believes their is little real demand for this project and that a train system like the one that runs in the nation's capital would be better suited for Ohio, as it would help move people from suburbs to city centers, a decision that might actually lure some drivers to abandon their cars for a commuter train.

In ORDC's pre-application to the Federal Rail Administration (FRA) that asks for more than $5 billion of the $8 billion being offered nationally for such projects, Ohio said its 3C plan would conservatively cost $1.53 billion. This figure, some rail observes say, will rise much higher if and when real bids are ever received. Bids to build HSR in Florida -- recall that the International standard for HSR is 167-mph or more-- were nearly double what proponents said they would be when they convinced Floridians in 2000 to have the state make a commitment toward Euro-style trains. In 2004, when the jaw-dropping bids came in from foreign companies that control the fast train technology, Floridians reversed their commitment in another statewide vote. The lesson from Florida, and now from California, where a slim margin of voters last November authorized the sale of $10-billion in bonds to pay one-third the total cost of the state's $45 billion HSR package and where a lawsuit filed recently by opponents of one part of the plan to adjust the route has been upheld by a county judge, should not be lost on regular Ohioans or their leaders.

Amid the fanfare and fever surrounding the prospect of HSR coming to a state near you, a vision that has every township official thinking their location will be a HSR stop and the riches brought in from the talking point that economic development will occur from it, more and more national voices are making clear arguments that are popping the myth bubble expanding around HSR. It may rub some rail proponents the wrong way, but its a message more people need to hear before they are lead to far down the primrose path.

The lesson may play out in Cincinnati, one big C in the 3C rail route. Residents of the Queen City opposed to a trolley project, that has already escalated in estimated cost from $123 million to $185 million, are pushing a charter amendment that if passed this fall would prevent any rail projects going forward without a vote of the public. The hometown newspaper, Gannet's conservative Cincinnati Enquirer, wrote a no-holds editorial calling for a halt to the trolley project. Proponents of trolleys running in a mostly Downtown loop argue not doing it will show how opposed to progress Cincinnati will be. Advocates to stop the trolleys in their tracks say its another boondoggle waiting to happen. Their argument is mostly centered on the health of city finances. Until Cincinnati city finances are flush again, such that it doesn't have to lay off workers or reduce funding for important programs, only then should such a project be discussed.

The implication for ODOT/ORDC is that passage of the charter amendment will help derail their hell-bent push to start the 3C because voters will have to vote again to authorize the building or updating of rail lines into the city.

Critics of the 3C plan, which if it ever gets started -- rail officials say with great uncertainty that their "quick start" train may not run until the fall of 2010 or even 2011 and that the train won't be in full bloom until 2015 -- say the speed will be so slow -- averaging only 57-mph because this train, by necessity, will be forced to share freight rail tracks with freight rail trains. Ohio rail officials are caught on the horns of a dilemma -- they want to encourage support for the plan but at the same time they must tell some officials they won't be a stop on the route. By themselves, freight trains had over 100 accidents in one year in Ohio, according to the FRA. It follows that collisions between passengers and freight will happen.

One key question state rail chiefs or even lawmakers are not asking, is who will be liable for such crashes? Indemnification, the technical name for who pays for accidents when they happen, is an issue, that like the capacity and capital costs Woodside is to produce, state rail chiefs don't want to talk about. State supporters of the costly train to the past would rather oversell its benefits -- one favorite talking point is that rail nodes will foster economic development, but it's a talking point any mode of transportation can make, so its not unique to the 3C -- and undersell the cost to build it, the cost to operate it, the ridership numbers who will use it and how much Ohio will need to subsidize it because it won't be a money maker.

Another critical aspect of the 3C is who should really pay for it, as this article about the debate over the cost of transportation in Virginia demonstrates. Should everyone or just users be stuck with the bill? State rail proponents would like everyone to pay for it even though only a few will actually pay the ticket price to ride nearly seven hours from one corner of the state to another. They are having a hard time making their slow train appear competitive with traveling the same distance by car. Those in the know in Ohio know that even when a rider gets from point A to point B, the public transportation infrastructure that awaits them in any Ohio city has a lot to be desired. State lawmakers have reduced state funding for public transportation by more than 60 percent since 2000, so who's fooling who here?

One funding options state rail officials would rather not discuss is asking those cities who want to be a part of the route -- Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus and Cleveland -- and those riders who want to ride it to pay for it. Most of Ohio will not be close to it and few Ohioans will not ride it. So why should they pay for it? Tolls and user fees are popular forms of paying for infrastructure, as those of us who follow infrastructure bills in Congress know. James Oberstar (D-Minnesota), the reigning wonk on transportation infrastructure, knows everything about how transportation modes can operate seamlessly but he falls short on how to pay for it all. With the nation all lathered up over growing deficits made real by spending on tax cuts, war and now maybe health insurance reform, the appetite to have Washington dole out trillions more for roads, bridges, airports or trains and train stations is surely souring. States like Ohio will be left to their own devices and political wills to fund their own infrastructure.

As the races for various public offices in 2010 come closer, the wisdom or folly of pushing the 3C slow train to the past will gain more speed. Gov. Strickland will have to defend it while his opponent, possibly John Kasich , a former Ohio Congressman know for his attention to balanced budgets, low-taxes and deficit hawk sentinel, could use it to show what a waste of funds it will be and ask where, exactly, Strickland expects to come up with Ohio's share of hundreds of millions, maybe billions, for a project that would necessarily have to usurp money from more important state priorities.

But until the un-electeds like the leaders of ODOT and ORDC are reigned in by their boss, they will continue to make unsubstantiated arguments for their slow train to the past and spend money as if it was delivered in a box car from CSX, all because they have control over it. Voters will be left at the train station (most communities don't have and can't afford to build) as they watch slow trains that won't go any faster than Civil War era trains chug away from them on routes to yesteryear.

John Michael Spinelli is a Certified Economic Development Financing Professional, business and travel writer and former credentialed Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is registered to lobby in Ohio and is the Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. Spinelli on Assignment is syndicated by Newstex.com and is available for subscription (99 cents/month) to Kindle owners. His tweets on Twitter can be followed @OhioNewsBureau. To send a news tip or to make a comment, email him at: ohionewsbureau@gmail.com



















































































































































































Saturday, August 15, 2009

Amtrak Delays Rail Study Results Ohio Needs for Federal HSR Funding


Amtrak Delays Rail Study Results Ohio Needs for Federal HSR Funding

Ohio's 3C Rail Route Missing on Midwest High Speed Rail Association Midwest Hub Map

by John Michael Spinelli

August 15, 2009

COLUMBUS, OHIO: The highly awaited Amtrak study on ridership, revenue projections and station locations related to reestablishing passenger rail service between Cincinnati and Cleveland, Ohio that was supposed to be completed mid August has been delayed a month, according to a report by the Associated Press published Friday in Forbes.com. The delay will significantly compact the time Ohio officials backing this project on the eastern fringe of the Midwestern Rail Corridor have to apply for stimulus package funding for high speed rail from the Federal Railroad Administration under the administration of President Barack Obama.

The AP's Matt Leingang reported that Amtrak has put other studies of other rail lines in other states, for example the line between Billings and Missoula , Montana, ahead of the proposed $1.53 billion route Ohio transportation and rail backers say will reconnect after 42 years of no passenger train traffic Cincinnati and Cleveland via Dayton and Columbus. This approximately 250 mile route is known as the 3C passenger rail corridor. The long awaited study, as state rail officials know, is key to Ohio's application, due on October 2, for as much as $400 million in start-up funding to get passenger trains running diagonally across the state. The plan, justified with nothing but cost estimates so far, is merely a down payment on far more costly plan that has miles to travel and many obstacles to overcome before anyone can really take it seriously, despite claims of its many benefits.

Not surprisingly, state rail officials like Matt Dietrich, executive director of the Ohio Rail Development Commission, downplayed the reported delay. But when news like this is not good, downplaying it is the only option available to a state official who has been unable to say with confidence that the need for these passenger trains and therefore the ridership that will ride them is clear and obvious. "There's a lot to do and I'm very confident we're going to get it done," Dietrich told Leingang. The $400 million figure, now a $150 higher than the figure Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland and Dietrich had been telling the press and state legislators over many months without any challenges, is supposed to go to buy rail cars, build stations and make necessary upgrades on existing freight tracks so that passenger trains traveling up to 79 mph can start running in 2011.

One common reason state officials are pushing for an idea that many Ohioans think is a giant boondoggle that will tax all Ohioans for the benefit of a few by building a train system that will be slow, costly, environmentally unfriendly and will do very little to reduce road congestion is that Ohio is home to one of the most densely populated corridors without rail service in the Midwest. But that's nothing new. So what's different today than decades ago is still unclear.

One of the many big problems with the passenger rail project being pushed by Gov. Strickland and Dietrich is that it is not high speed at all. The fact is that carbon-emitting diesel locomotives will only average 57-mph because by necessity it will have to share freight rail tracks owned by CSX and Norfolk Norther, who need more freight tracks to keep up with freight rail demands and sharing existing freight tracks with passenger trains will be problematic and lead to collisions between the different purposed trains. True high speed trains, like the ones Americans see running in Europe, Japan or China, have specially built and dedicated tracks. The faster a train goes, the straighter the route must be and the more it must be obstacle free, which means crossing traffic must either go over or below these purpose-driven tracks. All these special considerations add to the high cost of real high speed trains. Costs per mile often exceed $100 million per mile, not including on-going maintenance and operational costs.

Ohio rail rooters also say that passenger rail stations or stops will become nodes for economic development. That argument can be used with any transportation node. But if that is true, then why do they refuse to ask those businesses to be part of the funding solution?

As Ohio battles its budget shortfalls, which this cycle were $3.2 billion, and as revenue projects continue to fall short, as they came in recently with respect to gaming dollars from Keno, the funds for the state's share of the 3C just are there, no matter how many stones officials say they are looking under. State officials have been wrong on a number of revenue projections, so it's reasonable to think they could be "downplaying" the public subsidy their system would need on going, which today they say is a mere $10 million a year. And the source of those funds? Dietrich and others are looking to usurp fees that restaurants, hotels and gas stations pay to advertise on blue highway exit signs. Strickland did something similar when he tried to take hundreds of millions of tobacco settlement money earmarked for programs to stop children from smoking to help plug the hole in this year's budget.

As Leingang pointed out, Ohio has studied the idea of restoring passenger service over the past 30 years, a factor that should beg even one reporter to ask why so much time has passed and why so many funds have been spent with nothing to show for it all. The AP article quotes Ken Prendergast , executive director of All Aboard Ohio, a nonprofit group promoting passenger rail, saying that all this lost time and squandered money on studies that have produced nothing helps Ohio in its application. "We know a lot about this route already,"Prendergast said in the article, implying Ohio "is more than capable of pre-writing the application and filling in the blanks once they get new data."

But another article authored by Elana Schor of DC.Streetsblog.org about the Midwest High-Speed Rail Association's work pushing for a high-speed rail network that would use Chicago as a hub and ultimately extend through eight states, shows that the 3C route doesn't even show up on the MHSRA's rail map. One has to wonder why Ohio officials are so gungho when their prized route isn't even on the map.

But as other voices rise to raise questions rail boosters can't answer in detail or in general, about the exorbitant cost of true high speed rail, who's going to pay for it and where those funds will come from, its clear that taxpayers and others concerned about the environment, road congestion and carbon emissions are not ready to roll over for a pig in a poke.

Photo of Midwestern High Speed Rail Hub courtesy of TrainWeb.org

John Michael Spinelli is a Certified Economic Development Financing Professional, business and travel writer and former credentialed Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is registered to lobby in Ohio and is the Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. Spinelli on Assignment is syndicated by Newstex.com and is available for subscription (99 cents/month) to Kindle owners. His tweets on Twitter can be followed @OhioNewsBureau. To send a news tip or to make a comment, email him at: ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

















































































































































































Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Obama Rope-a-Dopes Republicans, Media on Health Care Reform Fight


Obama Rope-a-Dopes Republicans, Media on Health Care Reform Fight

Opponents to Health Care Are Punching Themselves Out

by John Michael Spinelli

August 12, 2009

Op-Editude

COLUMBUS, OHIO: As I watched the episode yesterday evening about Muhammad Ali from VH1's Lords of the Revolution, a five-part series that chronicles cultural game-changers from the 60s and 70s, I was transported back to the night in 1964 when, as a 16-year old living in Columbus, Ohio, I listened alone to the radio broadcast of the great fight in Miami, where a 22-year old Cassius Clay surprised the world by busting up the then-heavyweight boxing champion Sonny Liston to win the the fight despite nearly every one's predictions that the "Louisville Lip" would lose.

TAKING PUNCHES TO WIN

Ali, who had secretly become a Muslim two years prior to the big fight with Liston on February 25th, went on to become the greatest boxing champion of all time, a feat that required him to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortunes as he fought his way to to the championship three times.

As a much older fighter fighting a much younger and much stronger George Foreman in Zaire in the fight nicknamed "The Rumble in the Jungle," Ali allowed Foreman to whale away at him, one round after another with little response. After eight rounds of delivering constant punches to Ali's body as he leaned against the ring ropes, Foreman, who said his goal on entering the ring against an opponent was to "kill him," had punched himself out. Although stronger at the start of the fight, the young foreman could no longer defend himself against a more experience boxer who recognized the fight was his to win.

Ali, using the energy he had husbanded while the younger and stronger Foreman expelled all his, came out of his guarded stance and delivered a series of punches that knocked Foreman to the canvass, where he lay exhausted, unable to get back up. Ali had once again proven wrong all the naysayers who predicted he would lose.

IS OBAMA ON THE ROPES BY CHANCE OR CHOICE?

The Rope-a-Dope, Ali's strategy of non-resistance that allowed his opponent to hit him without really hurting him, seems to be the national tactic President Barack Obama has adopted as so-called "Town Brawls" take place locally across the nation during August, a month when Congress returns home to hear from their constituents, many of whom have been pre-programmed by corporate organizers beholden to their funding masters who want the cash cow of American health care delivery to remain as it is to make fools of themselves as they flail away with round-house punches that don't connect.

The naysayers for Obama, of course, are the media and the Republicans. The media counted him out from the first day he announced his run for president in 2007. And they've been wrong about his ability to recover from body blows his opponents have delivered -- from Hillary Clinton and her campaign to the onslaught he took from John McCain, Sarah Palin and the right-wing Republican empire that threw every accusation at him they could last fall, only to realize that he became wiser and stronger the longer the contest went on.

I believe the same will happen with the debate on reforming health care. The media machine, from national outlets to local ones, have either pronounced Obama dead on arrival or unable to stay alive on a variety of issues, only to be proven wrong. While Obama learns and adapts, the media is stuck in its reflex to repeat the hollow, misleading and intentionally false talking points spewed out by Republicans, who each day are withering on their vines of sour grapes over losing the presidency. And as we all know by now, the GOP is slowly shrinking as witnessed by the loss of hundreds of state legislature seats over the past four years. Little more than a regional party, Republicans are now mostly older white guys, mostly from the south, who all want to date one female pitbull with lipstick from Alaska.

Obama, who was the President of the Harvard Law Review, a fact that has impressed me but seems to be of no value to any talking-head pundit who champions dunces with little experience over accomplished professionals who are agile and articulate, has taken one body blow after another over reforming health care insurance, an issue Republicans have done nothing over their decades in power to help with except to enable their big corporate donors to prey on and milk like cash cows everyone who can afford their ginned-up health care schemes.

Even New York Times columnists like Frank Rich and Maureen Dowd, normally dumped in the liberal category, have wondered allowed whether Obama is "punking" us (Rich) or whether it's too late for him to make a comeback (Dowd).

FLOAT LIKE A BUTTERFLY, STING LIKE A BEE

In addition to his proven ability to evade capture by the media and right-wing Republicans on one issue after another, Obama has another strong reserve going for him that will win the day for him as he comes off the ropes and turns the tide in his favor. He's got the American health insurance industry and their greedy, uncaring, profit-only business model to whale on.

As the so-called "Birthers" and "Deathers" gnash their teeth and cry to "have my country back," showing just how stupid they are now because they never dared utter such inanities during the eight years President George Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney gave money to their rich friends through tax breaks, set the world on fire by starting two wars of convenience and pushing the nation to the brink of a second Great Depression, Obama has remained cool, calm and collected in the face of Americans who think being gouged to death by insurance companies and denied a competitive system that will reduce cost and lead to greater coverage is what Americans should opt for.

Republicans have made the media think that because their loudness, obnoxious disregard for the truth and blatant misinformation campaign is being reported on as if it had merit they are winning and Obama is loosing the war of words on this issue.

Obama will do in Washington what Ali did in Zaire, win the health care contest even though it looks grim for him in the early rounds of a fight that isn't over till it's over. And it will be over when Republicans, aided and abetted by their right-wing media henchmen and those who think the truth is equal distance from any point of view no matter how silly or obscene, punch themselves out. Obama won't stand over them like Ali did with Liston, but he will knock them to the canvass now and again in 2010, when their ranks will thin even more as voters realize they have no power and can no longer punch their way to victory over a smarter and more agile opponent who like Ali did before him show them he can "float like a butterfly and sting like a bee."

Photos courtesy of Google Images

John Michael Spinelli is a Certified Economic Development Financing Professional, business and travel writer and former credentialed Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is registered to lobby in Ohio and is the Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. Spinelli on Assignment is syndicated by Newstex.com and is available for subscription (99 cents/month) to Kindle owners. His tweets on Twitter can be followed @OhioNewsBureau. To send a news tip or to make a comment, email him at: ohionewsbureau@gmail.com
















































































































































































Wednesday, August 05, 2009

Strickland's Folly


Strickland's Folly

Ohio Budget Short on Dollars for Slow Train to the Past

It's a Question of Priorities


by John Michael Spinelli

August 5, 2009

COLUMBUS, OHIO: Two weeks ago Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland and his Director of Transportation (DOT) were among the gaggle of governors attending the high-speed rail summit in Chicago, where a pack was entered into by eight Midwest governors to form a united front for purposes of garnering as much of President Barack Obama's $8 billion in high speed rail funding as possible. With his DOT Director Jolene Molitoris in tow, Strickland became a signatory to a Midwest agreement to promote regional passenger rail and Ohio’s 3C Corridor, an approximately 270-mile trip plan to re-establish passenger trains connecting Cincinnati to Cleveland via Dayton and Columbus that's conservatively estimated to cost a cool $1.53 billion.

The purpose of the rail summit's memorandum of understanding is to coordinate regional efforts to secure federal funding for development of the Chicago Hub High-Speed Rail Corridor, which includes as a peripheral route the 3C Passenger Rail Plan Strickland and Molitoris have been promoting, despite hard evidence that ridership for it is even minimally plausible and that it will not further decimate a state budget that limped its way with one-time federal dollars and a variety of account gimmicks and fee increases to a state of balance.

In 2010, when the next exercise in balancing a state budget takes place, Obama dollars may not be available like they were for this budget and expected declines in tax revenue will further exacerbate a meltdown of state finances, making it hard to justify spending any on a rail plan that would make little sense even if times were good, which they are definitely not.

"Ohio’s central location makes our state the connection between the Chicago Hub to the west and the Northeast Corridor to the east,” Strickland said in a media release touting why he and Molitoris are behind the push to snag some of the $8 billion dedicated to fund high speed rail.

Ohio junior Senator Sherrod Brown also offered his support of the collaborative effort later in the day. "You can’t have a nationwide passenger rail system without Ohio,” he said, adding, "This agreement, coupled with new federal funds through the economic recovery package, will make the 3C corridor one step closer to becoming a reality. High-speed rail is critical to the long-term economic competitiveness of our region. By connecting Ohio’s largest cities with others cities in the Midwest, we can bring jobs and economic development to our state.”

Strickland and state transportation officials have said without being challenged that "restoring passenger rail service at conventional speed is Ohio’s first step toward implementing a high speed rail network connecting Ohio to the Midwest and the rest of the country." While it sounds good that existing freight tracks can be upgraded to accommodate fast trains, the reality is that that cannot happen. Real high speed trains need specially designed "purpose driven" tracks to handle the speeds trains in Europe handle every day. These kind of special tracks are especially expensive, but numbers for high speed rail are rarely mentioned because they present a story of cost that states like Ohio simple cannot handle, given the state of most state budgets. Ohio officials have said that their slow passenger train to the past will only average 57 mph and only reach a top speed of 90 or 100 mph after billions of dollars of freight-rail upgrades and years to do it.

As for the governors who did sign the memorandum of understanding -- Illinois Governor Pat Quinn, Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, Iowa Governor Chet Culver, Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle, Missouri Governor Jay Nixon, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley -- more voices are emerging that think they are the ones who will be taken for a ride.

Even though the media has performed as a dutiful lapdog for the hollow talking points of train advocates who overemphasize the benefits and downplay the costs to all taxpayers, some contrarian voices can be found that paint a far less rosy picture, one everyone should be aware of.

Steve Staneck, a research fellow at the Chicago Heartland Institute, recently wrote in the Alberta Lea Tribune that "If there truly were enough consumer support for high-speed rail, governments would not be involved. Private companies would provide the service and pocket the profits." Noting that the combined state deficits of the governors who signed the Midwest rail summit pack is over $28 million, Staneck chides the federal government for telling everyone not to worry about its $2 trillion budget deficit this year, and a national debt that has more than doubled to $11 trillion in the past eight years. "The government will print the money, or borrow it, or tax for it, future generations be damned," he shouts.

Another naysayer voice, that of Randal O'Toole from the CATO Institute, says of what happens when the dog catches the car: "Once we start building high-speed rail, you can expect local politicians to demand these gaps and others be filled at your expense. And don’t be surprised when the government asks you for another $1,000 or so in about 30 years to rebuild what will then be a worn-out system." O'Toole asks what all this money will produce. "Unless you live in California," he says, "don’t expect super-fast bullet trains. In Florida the FRA (Federal Railroad Administration) is considering trains with top speeds of 125 miles per hour. In most of the rest of the country, the FRA is merely proposing to boost top speeds of Amtrak trains from 79 to 110 m.p.h. A top speed of 125 m.p.h. means an average speed of only 75 to 85 m.p.h., which is hardly revolutionary. Many American railroads were running trains nearly that fast 70 years ago."

Even the Gray Lady is starting to discuss the realities of real high speed rail and what it means to all of us in a multi-part series that reveals the high cost of Euro-speed trains.

The ride Strickland and any other governor vying for a taste of federal high speed rail dollars cannot afford to take is the real cost of building Euro-style train systems. Ohio's rail plan says in clear language that it cannot happen if any contribution from the state would have a negative impact on the general fund budget of the state. In coming to terms with Republican leaders in the legislature, Strickland had to agree to a $3.2 billion budget patch that included $933 million in revenue from adding video slot machines to Ohio's seven racetracks that some critics say is an over estimate. Republican legislators criticized Strickland for using about $7 billion in one-time federal stimulus dollars, and said the next budget will be further out of whack and won't be able to rely on more federal funding.

With the specter of losing 30-40,000 more jobs, as agencies cut back staff because their state funding was cut back, the question of priorities needs to be raised. For every $1 Ohio would spend for its Harry Potter magic trick of a train system, its one less dollar that can be spent on social safety net services or any other service important to the state. Whether the 3C becomes a campaign issue in next year's race for governor is a matter of speculation. But the rising tide of dissatisfied voters who see high speed rail as a boondoggle that will only benefit consultant and lobbyists for status quo rail stems is a sign that the more voters learn about it the less they think it's a priority.

State transportation officials have already said the system will never break even and in fact will need a yearly public subsidy, an amount they say they are looking to find. Current sources for that subsidy, which is pegged on the low end at $10 million annually, may come from usurping revenue vendors pay ODOT to have their business name on highways signs and from charging exorbitant prices to riders for food and beverage sold on-board the train.

John Michael Spinelli is a Certified Economic Development Financing Professional, business and travel writer and former credentialed Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is registered to lobby in Ohio and is the Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. Spinelli on Assignment is syndicated by Newstex.com, can be followed on Twitter @OhioNewsBureau and available for subscription to Kindle owners. To send a news tip or make comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com