Hunting Black Swan Will Be GOP Swan Song

Black Swan Hunting Will be GOP's Swan Song

Goodwill Hunting for Obama Successes Signals GOP "Nightmare" Strategy Wrong Weapon at Wrong Time




with John Michael Spinelli

Columbus, Ohio: A Black Swan, as defined by author Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book is "the impact of the highly improbable." Black Swans, because they are so rare, unforeseen and powerful, should command respect and not be hunted as a trophy to be mounted for display. But the GOP and its future leaders clearly want to bag and mount the head of America's first Black Swan president, Barack Obama, an African-American whose election, while highly improbable to say the least, will have an historic impact on the fate of a nation trying to surface for air from a sinking ship of state.

Changing the tone in Washington, according to Republicans and the GOP base who acted as if they were deaf, dumb and blind to the reckless presidency of their two-term leader George W. Bush, is all about letting the hounds loose to dog Mr. Obama from Inauguration Day forward, hoping to trip him up whenever and wherever possible.

The GOP, which got shellacked by voters in both 2006 and last year, signaling what some election observers see as a post-election alignment to left-of-center politics, seems poised to nominate as their next chairman of the Republican National Committee, candidates who haven't learned the lesson voters delivered to them last November and who want to double-down on failed policies that have lost support of Latinos, first-time and independent voters, not to mention African Americans and not a few Republicans who switched parties this year to again court their shrinking base of loyalists.

South Carolina GOP chair Katon Dawson says in a recent video that he will "expose at every turn what Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid want to do to this country," in terms of "bigger government, limiting your freedoms."

Dawson pledged to become the Democratic trio's "worst nightmare" if elected to lead the GOP out of the swamp voters put them in over two election cycles.

Dawson's competitor for the post is Ken Blackwell,the former candidate for Governor of Ohio, who's running for RNC Chairman is popular among neo-conservatives but unpopular among Ohio Democrats who blame him for President winning Ohio and the White House in 2004, when he was Ohio Secretary of State. Blackwell, an African-American born in poverty in Cincinnati but who has since gained fame and fortune, makes his case that Mr. Obama's stimulus plan is nothing more than a "Trojan Horse" to create government jobs, which he says favor Democratic voters. "Creating 600,000 new jobs might help cement Virginia in the Democrat column, making it harder for Republicans to retake the White House," the Bible backing Blackwell wrote in a column at Townhall.com.

Ken Blackwell told Ben Smith of Politico that he doesn't think his uncompromising stands and lack of interest in getting along with sufficiently conservative would hurt him with the pols who compose the Republican National Committee. Blackwell, big in stature and bold in action, said he only has problems with three potential intra-party foes.

One of those three is out-going Ohio GOP Chair Bob Bennett, who did not endorse Blackwell for the national GOP post and who begrudgingly backed the Cincinnati tycoon in a lopsided loss to Ted Strickland in Ohio in 2006. Bennett, who recently retired from the Ohio GOP leadership post he's held since 1988, took a blatant swipe at Mr. Blackwell in a letter to RNC members. The letter was a reminder of how bitter the state's GOP remains over Mr. Blackwell dragging it down in a nearly historic defeat two years ago.

"As the longest serving state chairman on the Republican National Committee, I have personally witnessed many of our successes and failures. I have seen what works and what doesn't and I have recognized those chairmen whose leadership has been effective and who know how to win elections. With that in mind, I am pleased to offer my wholehearted endorsement to Mike Duncan." [Excerpt from Bennett's letter]

Bennett's successor, Kevin Dewine, 41, a four-term Ohio House member, was unanimously elected to recast his state party. "Going forward, we must be brutally honest with ourselves: The last four years have not been grand for the Grand Old Party,"DeWine said in published reports. "In many ways, the party of Lincoln too often has been divided against itself." He cautioned that a resurgence will not happen overnight and maybe not in two years. perhaps not in the next election in 2010, when he has a shot at retaking the offices of governor, attorney general and secretary of state.

As the GOP licks its wounds delivered by voters who whipped it as punishment for eight years of state and federal policies that have driven many states and the nation as a whole into a deep ditch, manifested by massive job losses, an economic meltdown of staggering proportions and unilateral decisions to start wars of political convenience that have resulted in the death of thousands of American soldiers and hundreds of thousands of dead men, women and children in Iraq and Afghanistan, the GOP will find that trying to hunt down America's first black Black Swan will backfire on them, given the hope by Americans that Mr. Obama be give ample time to undo the massive mess their leaders created.

A daily tracking poll byGallup, on the percentage of American who are confident or not confident in Mr. Obama's ability to be a good president, show those who believe he is up to the job is between 66-71 percent. An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted recently show that 80 percent of those surveyed think Mr. Obama is handling the presidential transition well. The same poll shows that 70 percent believe Congressional Republicans will be of little help or none at all to Mr.Obama's agenda. Seventy-one percent think Mr. Obama has a mandate to work for major new social and economic programs, and should not pursue small policy changes.

With numbers like these available to them, GOP leaders, whether local, state or federal, should put down their hunting weapons, and let the political Black Swan that is Mr. Obama engage in free-range feeding and not try to shoot it on sight, thereby killing the goose they hope will lay many golden eggs.

The old, tired GOP mantra that small government, less regulation and reduced taxes is the answer to prosperity for all has been debunked from eight years under Mr. Bush and from nearly a generation of such propaganda that started with the rise of "borrow and spend" started with the Reagan Revolution of 1980.

Incoming White House chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, spoke on NBC's "Meet the Press" Sunday about deficit spending and how Republicans have turned on a dime from saying it doesn't matter to saying it matters. Emanuel said he finds calls now by GOP leaders and supporters, like Blackwell, Dawson or political icon Rush Limbaugh, to be super wary of spending taxpayer dollars to lift America out of the single greatest economic collapse since the Great Depression ironic. He said it comes from the same Republicans who championed such spending over the last eight years when it came from their party's president for wars and tax breaks for the rich.

What GOP leaders should be very afraid of is not Mr. Obama's $800 or more billion spending plan, but his renewed and invigorated campaign to build on the network of supporters and campaign fund contributors he built on during his two-year odyssey to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

In an email to his campaign database Saturday, three days before he takes the oath of office for President, Mr. Obama congratulated his millions of supporters for building the "largest grassroots movement in history." Mocked and derided by the GOP pick for Vice President, a Black Swan candidate in reverse, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin derided and denigrated community organizers positions without any "official responsibility." Mr. Obama's young-man job was that of a community organizer in Chicago.

Now the nation's community organizer-in-chief, with official responsibilities galore, President Obama is charged with extricating America from a deep dark hole neither Ms. Palin nor her political colleagues warned against in the first place. Mr. Obama is rallying those who brought him this far, challenging them to keep going because his movement to bring "Change we can believe in" is just starting.

In his pledge for the future video, Mr. Obama told his volunteers and supporters that they "shaped the future of this country" and told them their movement is "to important to stop growing now." He announced a new effort, "Organizing for America," a new initiative to build on campaign issues like stopping the War in Iraq, health care for all and developing new energy sources that will power the economy and protect the environment.

He said such efforts will necessarily be lead by volunteers, grassroots leaders and regular citizens. GOP leaders should heed his call for expanding and re-powering a juggernaut of organization and technology that took them to the cleaners.

If GOP leaders, elected officials and supporters think all they have to do is say "they lost their way" and want to return to core principles that put their party and its supporters first and the nation second, they will wake up again in 2010 to the news that their party, made up mostly of white, rural, fiscal and social conservatives, will be smaller and more impotent.

"What you built can't stop now," he said, adding, "Together with our partners at the Democratic National Committee and its new chairman, Governor Tim Kaine, this movement will continue organizing and bringing new people into the political process." In solemn words, Mr. Obama said the "challenges facing our country are too great, and our journey to change America is just beginning."

Obama's inaugural address will will focus on "where we are as a country and who we are as a people," according to David Axelrod, Obama's senior campaign adviser who will now advise him in the White House, speaking on ABC's Sunday show "This Week" with George Stephanopolous. Axelrod said "we're in the mess we're in" due to Republican policies that "doubled our debt in just a few years." Like Emanuel, he, too, didn't hear critics ofObama's spending plan be critical of President Bush's spending. Axelrod said Obama's plan is not just spending for the sake of spending. Instead, he said Obama's spending constitutes investments on a variety of issues, all of which will pay long-term dividends. He said they are thoughtful, not frivolous.

The Black Swan has spoken. The GOP should listen well. If they don't, their swan song will be to self-select themselves onto the endangered species of political parties.


John Michael Spinelli is an economic development professional, business and travel writer and former Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is also Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. To send a tip or comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

One Question, One Answer Revisited

One Question, One Answer

Will Bush Resign?

With John Michael Spinelli

Columbus, Ohio: On October 18, 2006 I wrote an article speculating on whether George W. Bush, the first president to use his self-defined status as a unitary executive with special powers that allowed him to violate the Constitution and international law with impunity, was really the first American tyrant to hold that high office.

My speculation on whether he and Vice President Dick Cheney would actually resign from office when the Constitution called for them to leave their executive branch positions, has been answered. Next Tuesday, a day that cannot come soon enough for some, will see President-elect Barack Obama, the first African-American candidate to be elected to gain residency to the White House, raise his right hand and take the oath of office for President of the United States. Like Bush did eight years ago, Obama will swear to abide by the provisions of the Constitution, uphold our laws and protect and defend our naton, which after eight years of Bush and company has been taken down not a few notches.

While President Bush said he will indeed exit the world stage and relinquish the once mighty role he used to unilateral scrub the world of tyranny and bring an undefined brand of freedom to everyone, even at the end of a gun, returning to Dallas to work on a book, his legacy and his library, there are many, like New York Times Paul Krugman, a long-time thorn in the side of Mr. Bush, who gives voice to a concern held by many that Mr. Obama should not forsake the past for the future. While Mr. Obama's extensive efforts to be seen as ecumenical at the start of what 53 percent of voters hope will be two terms is both laudable yet disconcerting to his Republican opponents, not looking back to the past, and Mr. Bush's many legal transgressions, because it would necessarily dredge up information some would just as well lie buried for future historians to dig up and analyze, is bad for a nation and a system of government that says no one is above the law.

"Meanwhile, about Mr. Obama: while it’s probably in his short-term political interests to forgive and forget, next week he’s going to swear to “preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States.” That’s not a conditional oath to be honored only when it’s convenient.

"And to protect and defend the Constitution, a president must do more than obey the Constitution himself; he must hold those who violate the Constitution accountable. So Mr. Obama should reconsider his apparent decision to let the previous administration get away with crime. Consequences aside, that’s not a decision he has the right to make." [Paul Krugman]

Retrieved, rewound and ready for a new read two years later, here's "One Answer, One Question."

In a world where President Bush's War in Iraq and the global War on Terror guarantee that scaremongering and military strife will dominate our lives now and into the foreseeable future, the America people deserve an answer from Mr. Bush before, not after the upcoming mid-term elections.

If the Commander-in-Chief hesitates in answering it or chooses to pull out of his bag of constitutional tricks yet another self-proclaimed, self-righteous interpretation of his presidential powers, his response will tip his hand about whether he intends to go peacefully into POTUS afterlife or become America's first tyrant.

What's the simple question Americans, democracy-fatigued at home and democracy disappointed abroad, fear to ask of Mr. Bush?

"Mr. President, you have taken a solemn oath to uphold the US Constitution. Will you step down at the end of your term?"

Tyrants and democracy, we should recall, first emerged in Ancient Greece. Leaders elected through popular support learned they could exploit public complacency and not step down from office when their terms expired.

Should a storm of such constitutional hubris be allowed to gather, then the Divided States of America will be in for the fight of its life if it is to stop Mr. Bush from converting the Office of President into a redoubt of secrets and tyranny, which he alone controls.

Recent books like Cobra II, The One Percent Doctrine, Fiasco and The Greatest Story Ever Sold, which reveal the why's and how's behind the Bush/Cheney rush to war, are starting to bubble up through the Republican Party political pack ice, which has kept America's media submerged below it since Mr. Bush first took control of the White House. The Fourth Estate's restraint in challenging Mr. Bush's pell-mell rush to war in 2002, which he repeatedly justified to prevent Saddam Hussein from bringing nuclear mushroom clouds to our shores, has now been shown by respected authors and former Bush administration officials to have emboldened Mr. Bush to demand political contrition from Republicans and Democrats alike for a war that is now careening out of control and spreading beyond Iraqi borders to countries like Lebanon.

The recent signing by Mr. Bush of a bill that gives him exclusive power to determine what is and isn't torture, thereby circumventing Geneva Conventions, and giving him and his professional torturers immunity from prosecution, is just the latet sign that Mr. Bush may pull an "October surprise," not this year but in 2008, when he tells the country that conditions are such that he cannot and will not allow a successor to undo everything he has done to make the world a more dangerous place.

Vice President Dick Cheney, speaking at a GOP congressional candidate's fundraiser, pointed to the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah as fresh evidence of the ongoing battle against terrorism and why "it is absolutely essential that we stay the course," the AP reported Cheney saying.

Bill Buckley, father of the American conservative movement, said in a CBS news article that Bush's Iraq War has failed and Bush no longer has the confidence of the nation, "If you had a European prime minister who experienced what we've experienced it would be expected that he would retire or resign."

Buckley's prediction on how a parliamentary system would handle a stubborn leader like Bush whose war policies have disaffected a majority of the country, came true recently as a member of Tony Blair's Labour government told the prime minister what many Americans would like to tell their unitary executive. A junior British cabinet member wrote in a resignation letter that "your remaining in office is not in the interest of either the party or the country."

A bi-partisan panel of The American Bar Association sounded an alarm about the extent to which Bush and Cheney have sought to extend the power of their respective offices. The ABA report said that President Bush was flouting the Constitution and undermining the rule of law by claiming the power to disregard selected provisions of bills he signed.

One wayward Republican who sees the Constitutional rapids ahead is Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. In an article posted at MyWay, Specter is clear in what he intends to do to rein in the imperial president. "We will submit legislation to the United States Senate which will...authorize the Congress to undertake judicial review of those signing statements with the view to having the president's acts declared unconstitutional."

In an April 2006 Boston Globe article on Bush's single-minded power grab, the case was made for why Bush, being neither checked or balanced by either individuals or institutions, feels emboldened to rule from his Pennsylvania Avenue fortress. "Legal scholars say the scope and aggression of Bush's assertions that he can bypass laws represent a concerted effort to expand his power at the expense of Congress, upsetting the balance between the branches of government," the article stated. Bush has repeatedly declared he does not need to "execute" a law he believes is unconstitutional, a frightening thought by any standard of democracy.

Will George Bush use the White House as his federal fortress and not return quietly to his Crawford, Texas ranch on Judgment Day, when his term-limit rapture moment arrives? Who will ask this one question?

John Michael Spinelli is an economic development professional, business and travel writer and former Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is also Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. To send a tip or comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

CrissCrossingOhio Word Puzzle

CrissCrossingOhio

Are you puzzled by government in general and Ohio government in particular? Don’t have a clue about what’s happening, what it means or who’s responsible for it?

Spinelli on Assignment is posting the January 2009 edition of CrissCrossingOhio, the Buckeye State's first and greatest people, politics and government word puzzle.

Test your knowledge of Ohio people, politics and government. Brush up on the Ohio Legislature, state agencies, politics and politicians and much more.

From today’s breaking news and the people making it to fun facts and figures that include a pinch of history and a surprise or two along the way, CrissCrossingOhio is a fun and easy way to improve your Ohio IQ. From pages and interns to elected and appointed public officials, CrissCrossingOhio is recommended for people of all ages as a way to take your Ohio I.Q of important and trivial information to a new level.

Whether you wander through the Ohio blogosphere on a regular basis or are just content to read the front page headlines of your local print newspaper, spending time with CrissCrossingOhio will improve your IQ on Ohio people, politics, politicians, the state legislature, state agencies and other noteworthy facts or figures about Ohio.

By spending just a few minutes with CrissCrossingOhio, you will sharpen your knowledge of current events and the newsmakers behind them, and boost your general understanding of Ohio through the years.

Tips for using CrissCrossing Ohio: Send it to friends, co-workers or clients. Have a contest or just use it for pop quizzes at work or home.

Spinelli on Assignment, from time to time, will feature a new CrissCrossingOhio word puzzle.

If you have a clue and an answer you'd like to submit for consideration for a future CrissCrossingOhio or you would like to sponsor a specific topic or the puzzle over a period of timie , email your name, address and phone number to me at ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

CrissCrossing Ohio is copyrighted by John Michael Spinelli and published by Spinelli on Assignment. All rights reserved.

Tin Cup Governors

Tin Cup Governors

Will Alms from Washington Be Enough?

Ohio Asks for Funding for Road, Bridge, Rail Projects

with John Michael Spinelli

Columbus, Ohio: Governors and mayors from across the nation, especially from the 44 or so states that have widening budget deficits with no shovel-ready sources of money to close those gaping gaps, are rattling their tin cups, hoping soon-to-be President-elect Barack Obama will shower them with tens of billions of federal dollars so they don't have to choose between shedding services, raising taxes or both.

The closer Obama comes to his inauguration day, the more intense will be the call for stimulus funds -- wasteful bailout funding to some, especially fiscal conservatives -- to flow like flash-flood waters to thirsty states whose budget cups are leaky and dry.

Republicans, who never batted an eye when President George W. Bush ran up record deficits to pay for expensive wars and who defined not spending massive amounts on supporting the troops as un-American and un-patriotic, have switched back to traditional anti-tax arguments.

They are warning that Obama's proposed stimulus package, designed to produce millions of jobs to replace the millions lost just this and over the course of the two terms of out-going President Bush and his tribe of fiscal and social conservatives, shouldn't be too big because it will necessarily shift the burden of repayment to future generations.

But as the debate escalates over how big the economic recovery package should be, governors of states like New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Wisconsin and Ohio, among others, are indeed the Chicken Little's of our time. Only in their version of this classic children's tale, the sky really is falling.

In Ohio, for example, a Republican-controlled state since 1992 that elected Democrats in 2006 and went for Obama last year, the projected budget deficit so far is about $7.1 billion, the greatest budget gap in history.

Strickland, Ohio's first Democratic governor since the early 1990s, said in early January that the situation facing the state of Ohio is so dire that in order to balance his state’s budget, he would have to fund every state program at 75 percent of its current level, according to Politico.com. “If I were simply to flat fund the operations of this government, I’d end up with $7.3 billion in deficit,” he said, adding, "We’re just trying to keep afloat.”

The governors have collectively requested Obama and a new expanded Democratic-led Congress for $1 trillion. Hard hit by jobs losses across the board, manna from Washington would be spent to prevent cuts in social services and education, as well as “shovel ready” infrastructure projects that could begin with 18 months, according to published reports.

In the Buckeye State, jobs numbers are grim. Numbers from the Department of Job and Family Services show that employment decreased by 26,600 jobs, while goods-producing industries were down 29,330; manufacturing was down 22,100; and construction lost 7,500 jobs. For a state that never recovered from the Bush recession of 2001, losing 95,000 in the past 12 months, pushing the unemployment rate to 7.3 percent, is shock and awe of a different kind. In some areas of the state, like Lucas County, home to Toledo, the unemployment rate is 9.5 percent. In nearby Ottawa County, it is 10.3 percent.

As dire as conditions are, Republicans are being taken to the wood shed on the efficacy of tax cuts versus direct government spending. Obama's economic team says alms for poor states pack a bigger bang when spent directly than through tax cuts, which recipients might save instead of spending.

For a state like Ohio, which experienced $1.2 billion in state budget cuts in 2008, the hundreds of millions can't arrive soon enough.

In one region, Cuyahoga County and four other northeastern Ohio counties, the cost of their proposed projects are at $197 million, published reports say. County leaders, the report says, have added tens of millions of dollars more to the list.

Howard Maier, executive director of the Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agency, which funnels federal money to local transportation projects says, explaining the sum to a central Ohio newspaper, said: "We have to be ready the moment a stimulus package is approved." He added, "It's not just the direct jobs; suppliers are involved. There's a multiplier effect of the construction."

Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman is using the opportunity to get his push for light rail back on track. Coleman wants $200 million to build a 13-mile transit system. Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson wants $730 million to fund road and bridge projects.

But as this page has reported before, so-called "shovel-ready" projects may not be "future-ready" projects.

Which alms flow in what amounts to which states will be a fierce contest for sure. With consumer confidence just one point above an all-time low, doors will be open for the greenback cavalry when ever it arrives.

John Michael Spinelli is an economic development professional, business and travel writer and former Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is also Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. To send a tip or comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

Blame Forward: Holding Republicans Accountable as Obstructionists to Revival

Blame Forward: Holding Republicans Accountable as Obstructionists to Revival

with John Michael Spinelli

Op-Editude

Columbus, Ohio: Having stymied important legislation from passing for two years by preventing Senators from reaching the magic number of 60 in the Senate, backing a reckless war launched by a reckless president that will end up costing us all trillions of dollars and loosing big time in two successive election cycles that show just how fed up Americans are with their brazen, party-first policies that have brought us to the brink of disaster, it seems appropriate that Republicans be blamed forward for what appears to be their strategy of opposing at all costs President-elect Barack Obama's spending plans to bring America back to life again after eight straight years of pet Republican policies that put the nation, and much of the world, on life support.

Republicans, from George W. Bush in the White House to their control of both chambers of Congress for four years starting in 2002 when the GOP regained control of the US Senate, can rightfully be adjudicated as the party who endorsed at best and sat by idly at worst as their leaders, who said government was the problem but who became intoxicated with its power, took us from Clinton budget surpluses to massive Bush budget deficits.

It would seem that people who constantly carp about government as the enemy, who don't know how to run it efficiently or effectively when put in charge of it yet feel as happy as a pig in mud when they have that responsibility and who say starving it so it can be drowned in a bathtub is good, shouldn't be allowed to have anything to do with it; but that would be un-American and un-Democratic, not matter how much sense it makes.

As compassionate as a fox in a hen house, Republicans have brought great harm and heartache to the nation. As the minority party, they now intend to thwart the first African American president and his agenda to revive an economy that's tanked, put to work millions of people who have lost their jobs and bring about the kind of change that garnered him eight million more votes than John McCain or Sarah Palin, showing just how tired and disgusted the nation is with them and their party's so-last-century social and fiscal models.

Woody Hayes, the now infamous football coach of Ohio State University who won several national titles but who will forever be known as the military-like curmudgeon coach who was fired because he slugged an opposing team's player in a bowl game as the tide turned against the Scarlett and Gray, used the phrase "paying forward" to teach the lesson that "paying back" is retrospective while doing good deeds along the way instead of at the end of your career is prospective. Doing so, Hayes believed, you'll have built up a line of credit in being humane that will make you and those you touch better off for it.

Republicans who ruled Washington and state capitals from the mid-1990s to the election cycle of 2006 and who ladled out opportunities for Democrats to me partners in policy formulation as sparingly as a jailer giving food to prisoners and who believed unbridled spending was good as long it was for the war in Iraq, are now whining that Obama needs to be mindful of spending so future generations won't be unduly burdened. Such overt, disingenuous hypocrisy is a wonder to behold. But Republicans have no shortage of brazen chutzpah when it comes to telling others to not do what they do.

Now the minority again after an electoral drubbing of staggering proportions that will be achieved again in 2010 because hopeful GOP leaders think that doubling down on their agenda of making the rich richer, the middle class poor and siphoning off tax dollars to pay their cronies is what you do when you get elected, Republicans are staging, and the media is swallowing it whole like they did the bogus reasons for going to war in Iraq, that too much spending to put people back to work and remedy a housing situation made possible by the greedy Wall Street crowd their economic policies were crafted to satisfy, an assault on Obama and a new, expanded Democratic congress voters installed last November for following through on the campaign promises they ran on and won on.

New York Times columnist and winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, Paul Krugman, sees the new-found caution on spending by Republicans as their way to water down Obama's spending plans to a point where they won't do the job, thereby giving them the chance to say his agenda doesn't work, and please elect us again.

Krugman displays his math skills, arguing that Obama's plan to spend about $775 billion over two years is a conservative amount to do what's needed to put people back to work. He says it "takes $300 billion to reduce the unemployment rate by 1 percentage point" and that spending less will do less, playing into Republican arguments they media is already regurgitating that tax cuts for the wealthy and business is what's needed.

"I see the following scenario: a weak stimulus plan, perhaps even weaker than what we’re talking about now, is crafted to win those extra GOP votes. The plan limits the rise in unemployment, but things are still pretty bad, with the rate peaking at something like 9 percent and coming down only slowly. And then Mitch McConnell [aka "Dr. No"] says “See, government spending doesn’t work.” [Paul Krugman ]

Job losses just in 2008 is about 2 million, and news from the Gallup polling group released Tuesday forcast that the unemployment rate is likely to surge on Friday, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show that jobs lost at the end of the year will exceed the seasonally adjusted four-week average of 552,250. The Gallup poll also predicts that the unemployment rate is likely to "surge past 7%." And for those of us who believe the official unemployment rate is tamped down from what it shoud be, the real rate, made up of categories of workers not normally factored in to calculations, could be 4-5 percent higher.

While this debate is taking place, we learn that manufacturing activity fell to its lowest point in 28 years. We also hear that some state governors, especially five from the Midwest including Ohio, are asking the new president and congress to open the cash-flow sluice gates to prevent more cuts to education, social services and infrastructure.

For states like Ohio, where about 250 thousand jobs are directly or indirectly tied to the fortunes of Detroit's Big Three, news that Chrysler sales are off 54 percent, General Motors 31 percent and Ford over 32 percent is downright scary. Even without a collapse of car makers, Ohio and two other states, New York and North Carolina, had to shut down their electronic unemployment filing systems due to system stress and heavy volume.

The report by ABC News said about 4.5 million Americans are collecting jobless benefits, a 26-year high. Web sites and phone systems now commonly used to file for benefits, it said, are being tested like never before. That's not all, folks.

John Michael Spinelli is an economic development professional, business and travel writer and former Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is also Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. To send a tip or comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

Tyrannosaurus Republicanus

Tyrannosaurus Republicanus

Is the Age of Republican Dominance Over?





With John Michael Spinelli

Columbus, Ohio: During the Age of Dinosaurs, the most feared of the giant lizards was the Tyrannosaurus Rex, whose vertical posture, swift and strong legs and powerful jaws stacked with tearing teeth made it the dominant hunter of its time. But those days of devastating dominance are over. T-Rex's genes have drifted downward over the millennium to the point where the once mighty carnivore is so small, toothless and tasty that local grocery stores routinely offer them roasted for about $6 bucks.

Sifting through the scores of post-election mortems on America's voting electorate, arguments are being made that while Republicans aren't likely anytime soon to be skewered and roasted like modern day chickens, their once powerful and some say terrifying rein of terror has reached a point where their core principles -- small government, free markets, fiscal and social conservatism -- may be bordering on extinction. The ranks of new voters -- made up of the poor, minorities, women, youth, Latinos and seniors -- are swelling and swerving the nation left of center on issues like universal health care, energy independence, universal voter registration, fair but regulated markets, collective bargaining and war as the last not first resort in foreign relations. The Rovian age of divide and conquer has yielded to the Obama age of unite and collaborate.

From 1980, when California's Republican Governor Ronald Reagan christened the era of Republican rule by matriculating to Pennsylvania Avenue, to the recent White House years of two-term President George W. Bush, political mavens and prognosticators, including the mainstream media, thought the age of Republicans would continue forward, showing their "family values and core principles" would be the basis for a "permanent Republican majority." Illinois Sen. Barack Obama beat his rival Arizona Sen. John McCain nationwide by about eight and one-half million votes, in an election earmarked by huge voter turnouts in Democratic primaries that set the stage for what happened on Election Day, when about 123 million voters (or 67% of eligible voters) cast their ballots. While white voters used to control elections, that is no longer the case. A decrease in white voters and a rise in black andLatino voters, among other factors, contributed to Obama's win even though the total turnout was not the record-setting dynamic many thought it would be.

But that notion was shattered on November 4, when American voters, whose conscience and pocketbooks had been beat down and battered by a president who campaigned on being a "compassionate conservative" but who governed as a warrior president who took from the middle-class and poor to give to the rich in the guise of tax reductions, rose up to "Just Say No" to a third term of Bush policies and "Yes We Can" to a new era of change that could signal the end of the age of Republican dominance.

One question political pundits are asking is whether the results of the general election mark the beginning of a political realignment that will present Democrats as the new dominant party? Will this year's election results be short lived or long lasting? Many political mavens like Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report, say that despite the progress Democrats made in 2006 and this year -- winning at least a dozen Senate seats and at least 50 House seats and taking total control of Congress and the White House at the national level, and at the state level with 4,090 state legislators to the GOP’s 3,221 -- this year's election results don't convince him that a political realignment has not taken place. Democrats may still be short of doing doing to Republicans what Republicans did to Democrats over the last 38 years, when except for eight years of Bill Clinton, Republicans stalked the landscape withimpunity like T-Rex did in its time.

But others, like Todd Lindberg, a fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution and the editor of Policy Review, say the rise of Republicans, as Republican loyalists say will happen as soon as the mid-term elections in two years, is a myth. Writing in the The (Cleveland) Plain Dealer, Lindberg, an informal policy adviser to the McCain campaign, said the "decline of Republican strength occurs by having strong Republicans become weak Republicans, weak Republicans becoming independents and independents leaning more Democratic or even becoming Democrats." He said this is a "portrait of an electorate moving from center-right to center-left." But while he counsels Republicans to not count on Obama stumbling, leading to Democratic failure, he does advise them that the "right of center" electorate they think is still here has moved on to a "left of center' agenda.

But the bad news for Tyrannasaurus Republicans lies in the tens of millions of voters who have yet to make it to the rolls and why, when they do, they are likely to register as Democrats, as we saw happen this electioncycle when new registered voters by a lopsided margin went Democratic. Approximately 67 percent of the 202 million eligible Americans voted for president in 2008. Obama won 53 percent (66,882,230) of them to McCain's (58,343,671) 46 percent. That means that about 76 million more Americans could vote. If Democrats garnered about 75 percent of new voters, that means, potentially, that if efforts underway to bring universal voter registration to bear are successful, as some believe it can be, that means another 57 million votes will be electing Democrats not Republicans to high office. The staggering implications of this should be clear to both major parties.

And just think, if Obama raised about $600 million in campaign funds from about 3.1 million donors at an average clip of $88 dollars each, the amount he and his successors could raise from tens of millions more energized voters is pretty awe inspiring, another standard Republicans wouldn't be able to keep up as their base goes south. If money is the mother's milk of American politics because it buys exposure time in the media, then progressives like Obama and his ilk who used technology, especially the Internet, in innovative ways will have a long lead for elections to come. And in between election cycles, once corralled in that left of center database, drilling another $25 from people who would pay for the pleasure of seeing their political agendas come to fruition would result in hundreds of millions more in campaign cash that Republicans couldn't match through their traditional sources of corporations and wealthy private donors.

In President-elect Obama's sweeping victory, from coast to coat with the exception of the stronghold of Deep South that Republicans have used to win seven of the last 10 elections, his Electoral College romping of McCain (365 to 173) shows just how receptive Americans are to the core tenants of his agenda. But the South, while it voted Republican again this year, isn't the trump card Republicans think it is. Obama showed that the West, with states like Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico going Democratic, can neutralize the power of the South. More importantly, if Republican states like Virginia and North Carolina can drift left of center, the meteorite thatundid T-Rex and associates could come in the form of the polarizing leadership qualities of a social and fiscal conservative of the timbre of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. If she becomes the GOP's standard bearer in 2012, it could be a long, bumpy ride for Tyrannosaurus Republicans.

John Michael Spinelli is a certified economic development professional, business and travel writer and a former Ohio Statehouse government and political reporter and business columnist.

To send a tip or story idea, email to ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

I Now Pronounce You Mr. and Mrs. Neocon

I Now Pronounce You Mr. and Mrs. NeoCon

Will GOP Peg Future on Shotgun Wedding of Ken Blackwell and Sarah Palin?

Republicans On Leadership Ledge Find Democrats Shouting Jump

with John Michael Spinelli

Op-Editude

Columbus, Ohio: The news that J. Kenneth Blackwell, Ohio's former two-time secretary of state roundly criticized for his partisan administration of the 2004 election that gave the state and the White House to George W. Bush, is a leading contender among GOP neocons to become the next leader of the Republican National Committee (RNC) warms the hearts of Democrats.

Instead of fearing what a wealthy, Evangelical African-American who lost a race for Ohio governor to Democrat Ted Strickland by historic margins in 2006 can do to resuscitate a party many now believe is a regional party because it only reflects the voters in mostly southern states, some Democrats are encouraging the GOP to peg its future on Blackwell and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, two polarizing politicians who embraced social-wedge issues against gay rights and stood for guns, melding the Bible with government and fiscal conservatism that delivered big losses for each of them in successive election cycles.

Two dozen conservative luminaries are poised to announce their support for Blackwell for Republican Nation Committee chairman, according to Politico reporter Ben Smith. A group backing Blackwell that "mixes leading economic conservatives, including Steve Forbes and Pat Toomey, and leading social conservatives, including James Dobson and Tony Perkins" has agreed to endorse and campaign together for a candidate based on a questionnaire assembled by veteran GOP neocon activist.

"The conservative endorsers noted that there were other good candidates, but all agreed that Ken Blackwell is the best choice. They intend to contact grassroots conservatives across the country and ask them to urge the three RNC members from each state and U.S. territory to vote for Ken Blackwell for RNC chairman." [Ben Smith of Politico]

Smith says Blackwell appears to have the public support of 12 RNC members now, but the winner will be whom ever can garner a majority of the RNC's 168 members. Among his other post-election positions, Blackwell is now the Senior Fellow for Family Empowerment at the Family Research Council and the Ronald Reagan Distinguished Fellow for Public Policy at the Buckeye Institute in Ohio's capital city Columbus.

Blackwell, a Xavier University football player who once tried out with the Dallas Cowboys, will compete with southern state contenders like current RNC Chairman Robert "Mike" Duncan of Kentucky, South Carolina Chairman Katon Dawson and former Tennessee chairman Chip Saltsman. The physically imposing Blackwell, who hails from conservative southwest Ohio, joins former Maryland lieutenant governor Michael Steele as the only two black candidates. The last RNC hopeful is Saul Anuzis, the Michigan GOP chairman. One of these candidates will be selected to lead the GOP back from the brink on Jan. 28.

Sarah Palin, the GOP 2008 candidate for vice president who energized the GOP base with her feisty, small-town style of stump politics that tried to replay a hand of divide and conquer that worked so well for the GOP over a generation but came up craps in a staggering loss to President-elect Barack Obama, is the focus of many pundits and media types who think her good looks, aggressive opportunism and taste for the kill will put her ahead of the tired old white guys who lost to one of their own, Arizona Sen. John McCain, but who are now jockeying four years out for another run at being top of the ticket.

If the marriage of two unabashed, unrepentant neocons like Blackwell and Palin is what the GOP thinks is their turnaround ticket to the post-election alignment of the nation to Democrats and a socially progressive agenda, they will indeed have headed the call of progressives and Democrats to "jump" from the narrow political ledge the GOP finds its self on, made possible by stunning gains by Democrats at all levels of government in states like Indian, Virginia, North Carolina and Nevada that Republicans thought they had in their back pocket.

It would truly be a contemporary exercise in Double Think and Double Speak -- concepts at the center of 1984, George Orwell's tale of a dystopian world -- to believe that two ultra social and fiscal conservatives like Blackwell and Palin can be true to their agendas when the nation has chosen to another road, one more open to a progressive agenda that embraces values so anathema to the GOP's shrinking base now mostly isolated to Deep South states. Moreover, Mr. and Mrs. Neocon were front and center in support of President Bush, whose presidency ended with sky-high disapproval ratings and whose political party is now being characterized as a "party of whiners."

Ohio, a state now facing historic budget problems in part due to the loss of hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs over the last eight years, was run stem to stern by Republicans like Blackwell from the halcyon days of the "Contract with America" in the mid-90s to 2006, when Buckeyes, tired of Republican scandals and pay-to-play politics, gave Democrats a turn at bat.

If President Obama and a new, expanded Democratic Congress can pull America out of the steep economic dive Bush and company has put it in, the challenge of Blackwell and Palin, already daunting, will become an exercise in futility as whites, their voting base, become a minority and as progressive programs show that working together rather than pitting one group against another is the smarter, humane course to pursue.

John Michael Spinelli is an economic development professional, business and travel writer and former Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is also Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. To send a tip or comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

Recognition of Most Valuable 2008 Progressives Includes Ohio Congresswoman, Economic Analysis Group

Recognition of Most Valuable 2008 Progressives Includes Ohio Congresswoman, Economic Analysis Group

Nation Magazine Applauds Marcy Kaptur, Policy Matters Ohio for National, Regional Leadership, Backbone

with John Michael Spinelli

Op-Editude

Columbus, Ohio: The Nation, a progressive magazine that has issued one clarion call after another on a variety of topics, domestic and international, over the last eight years of the reckless and damaging presidency of George W. Bush, issued an end-of-year list of picks of most valuable progressives.

The article posted by John Nichols, whose work focuses on the "political, social, economic and cultural activism that mainstream media commonly ignore," named Ohio Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur of Toledo as the most valuable House member.

Nichols also culled out Policy Matters Ohio, an economic, non-partisan, non-profit think tank group based in Cleveland, as its most valuable pick for state or regional group. PMO was applauded for its work on tax policy and education, among other issues key to Ohio's economy and budgeting.

The Nation on Kaptur:

"When Democratic leaders in the House buckled in the face of Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's call for a no-strings-attached bailout for big banks, it was Kaptur who rallied the opposition--successfully blocking Paulson's first proposal in the House and forcing minor improvements in the plan. Ultimately, Paulson got most of what he asked for – and the banks pocketed hundreds of billions without aiding beleaguered homeowners or stalling the downward spiral of the economy. Kaptur warned that this would happen, as part of an ongoing critique of the bailout scheme. Throughout the fight, the Toledo Democrat's speeches on the House floor were as visionary as they were populist--making the longest-serving woman in the House something of a YouTube phenomenon. For this, she will get no credit from Democratic party leaders. That's too bad, as her record on economic issues--especially trade and agricultural policy--is one of consistently being right when just about everyone else was wrong. To a greater extent than anyone else in the House, she has defined the distinction between Main Street and Wall Street as something more than a slogan; and she is one of the few Democrats who actually understands that the only economic "fix" for America will be the one that begins on Main Street."

The Nation on Policy Matters Ohio:

"Bridging the gap between sometimes esoteric national debates about economic issues and the real-life challenges faced by people living in Cleveland, Youngstown and Dayton, Policy Matters Ohio is a non-profit research and advocacy organization that pushes the envelope on debates about tax policy and the funding of essential education and safety-net programs. Intellectually rigorous, yet always accessible in its approach, this group has produced more than 160 reports that have given Ohio's progressive activists and legislators the tools they need to challenge corporate spin and pressure tactics. In tight economic times, groups such as Policy Matters Ohio are absolutely essential players in life-and-death debates about how state and local governmental agencies should respond to revenue shortfalls and rising demands for services. PMO's founding executive director, Amy Hanauer, is great at making the link between the initiatives of national groups with which she works--the Economic Policy Institute, Demos and the Apollo Alliance--and local and legislative policymakers in Ohio, moving progressive priorities out of Washington to the communities where good ideas can and must be turned into practical programs."

During my Ohio Statehouse reporting days, I covered Congresswoman Kaptur on numerous occasions in Columbus as she conducted press conferences in the minority caucus room, where it was not unusual for her to be in the company of other individuals or elected public officials who were relevant to the topic at hand.

As an important member of the US House Appropriations Committee, Kaptur, who will acquire more leverage now that Democrats are firmly in charge of the people's house, has always put the the concerns of her constituents over the interests of corporations. As Nichols points out, she played a leadership role in forcing Bush Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, a former power player on Wall Street who wanted no questions asked and little oversight in shelling out $700 billion to banks to lend, to think differently about what he wanted the so-called TARP funds to do.

Covering the state legislature as I did for three years when Republicans controlled all branches of government, I soon realized that testimony offered on various bills by PMO representatives made more sense than others. Unfortunately, PMO's guidance was rejected out of hand by Republican leadership because it didn't endorse their now-failed economic policies, which have driven both Ohio and the nation into a deep ditch.

As a reporter I found their research to be well researched, well-documented and focused on why lawmakers should have pursued avenues other than ones that mirrored the dictates of big business and their loyalists, who sought to pay fewer taxes and lower wages to their workers.

Had Ohio legislators given more consideration to what PMO had told them to do to keep their economy humming and their budget topped up, Buckeyes might not be hurting as much as they are today, hoping for a Hail Mary Pass from President-elect Barack Obama that can help lift it out of its deep doldrums.

The message from New York Times columnist Paul Krugman that Republicans better evolve [especially for the ones who don't believe in the Theory of Evolution] or go extinct. Krugman's thesis is that America isn't the same one Republicans controlled for a generation, based on a so-called "Southern Strategy" that was ultimately pinned to racist agendas. From the feel-good days of Ronald Reagan to the out-in-the-cold nights of the nearly finished Bush years, the tide has changed, as this year's state and national elections showed with big gains by Democrats from statehouses to the White House.

The Nation and other progressive sources and voices can take heart that a post-election alignment to Democrats has taken place, despite the reluctance of the mainstream media to come to the same conclusion.

The MVPs Nichols listed will move to the front of the class as Obama and his new, expanded Democratic Congress help workers up instead of forcing them down, as the soon to be minority Republican Party did for so many years.

John Michael Spinelli is an economic development professional and former Ohio Statehouse political reporter and business columnist. He is also Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. To send a tip of comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com