Toll of Polls on Obama, Strickland show national, Ohio rating slides

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Candidate Barack Obama speaks to Ohio voters in Westervile
outside Columbus in 2008. (Photo/John Michael Spinelli

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Polls out Wednesday show President Barack Obama, who clinched his win of the White House last year when he carried Ohio, and Buckeye State Gov. Ted Strickland, who was elected to the top spot along with other Democrats who took back state offices in 2006, the popularity they once enjoyed has been short lived, as polling numbers released by both Quinnipiac University and Rasmussen Reports show.

Quinnipiac Poll shows cracks in Obama armor widening

The Quinnipiac Poll shows Obama has fallen in popularity with voters nationwide from a high of 59 percent in June to 46 percent today. The number of Americans who now disapproving of his job performance is 44 percent, two percent below those giving him a thumbs up, which it self is two percent below the 48 percent in November who were on his side.

Obama still has three more years to turn voters around enough to win a second term. The same is not true for Ohio Gov. Strickland, who is already gearing up for the bruising battle he'll have to wage with his endorsed GOP-rival, John Kasich.

Rasmussen report a cause for worry for Strickland

The numbers for that match-up contained in a poll released by Rasmussen Reports, show Strickland (pictured here at this year's Ohio State Fair), who won 61 percent of the vote in 2006 but who has struggled with a state on the rocks from a combination of revenue shortfalls, is now nine percent behind Kasich, whose campaign slogan is he is a "new way and a new day."

Leading up to their reporting, Rasmussen paints a partial picture of the state of the state in Ohio. Unemployment is at 10.5 percent, a budget hole of nearly $900 looms as Strickland and Senate Republicans Roman wrestle on how to close it and thousands of manufacturing and construction jobs continue to disappear each month.

With sentiment against deficit spending, and incumbents like Obama and Strickland who have few viable options to turn things around, as the former Congressman said he would do in 2006, and who say without government spending the abyss they say they see in the rear view mirrors would have swallowed them alive, the electoral climate for a candidate like Strickland could be very bad for his political health.

For Strickland, Rasmussen says he wins support from just 69 percent of the state’s Democratic voters and trails by 25 percentage points among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Adding to Strickland’s woes, they note, is a very public disagreement with the Ohio Legislative Black Caucus.

The Rasmussen Poll shows Strickland attracting only 71 percent (71%) of the black vote, and reports that only 13 percent (13%) of African-American voters say they will vote against the governor. Fifteen percent remain undecided in the poll. The polling group that poll watchers say leans more right than others, says it's likely that the Democratic candidate (Strickland) will "eventually win much better support from the black community statewide."

Forty-eight percent (48%) of all voters in the state still approve of the way Strickland is handling his job, while 50% disapprove. Those figures include 11% who Strongly Approve and 24% who Strongly Disapprove.

Obama's job approval rating continues to slide and it's evident the deterioration stems from voter unhappiness over domestic policy matters," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. He says that while the decline in Obama's overall approval in the last month has been small, with the exception of independent voters, who went from three points negative to 14 points. "If the trend continues, it won't be long before he (Obama) could be in the unenviable position of having more Americans disapprove than approve of his job performance."

Follow me on Twitter @ohionewsbureau. Read more stories on people, politics and government in Ohio here. Contact: ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

Ohio Spending Panel OKs $200K More for Slow Train to the Past Project

Ohio Spending Panel OKs $200K More for Slow Train to the Past Project

Outsourced California Rail Study Firm Outsources Work to $300/hour Consultant

State Spending Priorities Called into Question as Initial 3C Rail Study Reaches $650,000

by John Michael Spinelli

August 27, 2009

COLUMBUS, OHIO: The split vote last Monday by a bi-partisan legislative spending panel, over whether Ohio rail chiefs should be given another $200,000 on top of the $450,000 they received in late March to fund a California firm's assessment of the capacity and capital costs associated with Gov. Ted Strickland's idea to start running passenger rail trains between Cincinnati and Cleveland, raises questions of whether this project has merit at a time when Ohio's budget is under terrible pressure and if the Controlling Board will become a back-door to increased agency funding reduced during the regular budget cycle?

The Controlling Board, housed in the Ohio Department of Budget and Management and controlled by the administration of Democratic Gov. Strickland, is an insider's agency that rarely gains coverage by the media other than when spending on hot topics like casino gambling, slot machines or special counsel for special projects comes before its bi-weekly schedule. Ohio news media did take note that state agencies whose funding was reduced in the recently completed budget cycle, that ended on July 17 when Strickland signed a budget some say will lead to thousands fewer state workers and job losses by agencies whose state funding was cut sharply, are using the sleepy spending panel as a back-door method to add to their budgets.

In the case of the request by the Ohio Department of Development (ODOT) and its captive rail agency, The Ohio Rail Development Commission (ORDC) that asked for and received another $200,000 for critical work its needs before it can apply for high-speed rail (HSR) funds from Washington on October 2, the Controlling Board may find itself in the news more often as it becomes a new battleground to tussle over projects that really do need more funding or whether projects like the 3C railroad project, that Republicans in general and Republicans on this panel in particular say is not only not in demand but will spend precious dollars that could be spent on more pressing priorities, like funding food banks, children's health programs, libraries, services for the elderly and the sick, should slow down and wait for better times or better train technology.

Public information submitted (#90) to the Controlling Board by ODOT/ORDC to add another $200,000 to the $450,000 the panel approved in late March, shows the small, four-person California firm, Woodside Consulting, that state officials said they had chosen to perform analysis of the "capacity and capital costs" associated with the re-establishment of passenger rail trains along a 250-mile route connecting Cincinnati with Cleveland with stops in Columbus and Dayton along the way because only they could do it, will now outsource the state's outsourced work to other consultants, one of whom will charge $300/hour, a rate that even high-priced lawyers doing special counsel work for the Ohio Attorney General would envy.

Calls for comments to the three Republicans who voted against the rail consulting funding request Monday, State Senators John Carey (17th Dist), Mark Wagoner (2nd District) and House Representative Jay Hottinger (71st District), were not returned to Spinelli on Assignment in time for this column. However, a staffer for Hottinger who said he was familiar with his boss's general thoughts on the issue of high speed rail, said his boss believes their is little real demand for this project and that a train system like the one that runs in the nation's capital would be better suited for Ohio, as it would help move people from suburbs to city centers, a decision that might actually lure some drivers to abandon their cars for a commuter train.

In ORDC's pre-application to the Federal Rail Administration (FRA) that asks for more than $5 billion of the $8 billion being offered nationally for such projects, Ohio said its 3C plan would conservatively cost $1.53 billion. This figure, some rail observes say, will rise much higher if and when real bids are ever received. Bids to build HSR in Florida -- recall that the International standard for HSR is 167-mph or more-- were nearly double what proponents said they would be when they convinced Floridians in 2000 to have the state make a commitment toward Euro-style trains. In 2004, when the jaw-dropping bids came in from foreign companies that control the fast train technology, Floridians reversed their commitment in another statewide vote. The lesson from Florida, and now from California, where a slim margin of voters last November authorized the sale of $10-billion in bonds to pay one-third the total cost of the state's $45 billion HSR package and where a lawsuit filed recently by opponents of one part of the plan to adjust the route has been upheld by a county judge, should not be lost on regular Ohioans or their leaders.

Amid the fanfare and fever surrounding the prospect of HSR coming to a state near you, a vision that has every township official thinking their location will be a HSR stop and the riches brought in from the talking point that economic development will occur from it, more and more national voices are making clear arguments that are popping the myth bubble expanding around HSR. It may rub some rail proponents the wrong way, but its a message more people need to hear before they are lead to far down the primrose path.

The lesson may play out in Cincinnati, one big C in the 3C rail route. Residents of the Queen City opposed to a trolley project, that has already escalated in estimated cost from $123 million to $185 million, are pushing a charter amendment that if passed this fall would prevent any rail projects going forward without a vote of the public. The hometown newspaper, Gannet's conservative Cincinnati Enquirer, wrote a no-holds editorial calling for a halt to the trolley project. Proponents of trolleys running in a mostly Downtown loop argue not doing it will show how opposed to progress Cincinnati will be. Advocates to stop the trolleys in their tracks say its another boondoggle waiting to happen. Their argument is mostly centered on the health of city finances. Until Cincinnati city finances are flush again, such that it doesn't have to lay off workers or reduce funding for important programs, only then should such a project be discussed.

The implication for ODOT/ORDC is that passage of the charter amendment will help derail their hell-bent push to start the 3C because voters will have to vote again to authorize the building or updating of rail lines into the city.

Critics of the 3C plan, which if it ever gets started -- rail officials say with great uncertainty that their "quick start" train may not run until the fall of 2010 or even 2011 and that the train won't be in full bloom until 2015 -- say the speed will be so slow -- averaging only 57-mph because this train, by necessity, will be forced to share freight rail tracks with freight rail trains. Ohio rail officials are caught on the horns of a dilemma -- they want to encourage support for the plan but at the same time they must tell some officials they won't be a stop on the route. By themselves, freight trains had over 100 accidents in one year in Ohio, according to the FRA. It follows that collisions between passengers and freight will happen.

One key question state rail chiefs or even lawmakers are not asking, is who will be liable for such crashes? Indemnification, the technical name for who pays for accidents when they happen, is an issue, that like the capacity and capital costs Woodside is to produce, state rail chiefs don't want to talk about. State supporters of the costly train to the past would rather oversell its benefits -- one favorite talking point is that rail nodes will foster economic development, but it's a talking point any mode of transportation can make, so its not unique to the 3C -- and undersell the cost to build it, the cost to operate it, the ridership numbers who will use it and how much Ohio will need to subsidize it because it won't be a money maker.

Another critical aspect of the 3C is who should really pay for it, as this article about the debate over the cost of transportation in Virginia demonstrates. Should everyone or just users be stuck with the bill? State rail proponents would like everyone to pay for it even though only a few will actually pay the ticket price to ride nearly seven hours from one corner of the state to another. They are having a hard time making their slow train appear competitive with traveling the same distance by car. Those in the know in Ohio know that even when a rider gets from point A to point B, the public transportation infrastructure that awaits them in any Ohio city has a lot to be desired. State lawmakers have reduced state funding for public transportation by more than 60 percent since 2000, so who's fooling who here?

One funding options state rail officials would rather not discuss is asking those cities who want to be a part of the route -- Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus and Cleveland -- and those riders who want to ride it to pay for it. Most of Ohio will not be close to it and few Ohioans will not ride it. So why should they pay for it? Tolls and user fees are popular forms of paying for infrastructure, as those of us who follow infrastructure bills in Congress know. James Oberstar (D-Minnesota), the reigning wonk on transportation infrastructure, knows everything about how transportation modes can operate seamlessly but he falls short on how to pay for it all. With the nation all lathered up over growing deficits made real by spending on tax cuts, war and now maybe health insurance reform, the appetite to have Washington dole out trillions more for roads, bridges, airports or trains and train stations is surely souring. States like Ohio will be left to their own devices and political wills to fund their own infrastructure.

As the races for various public offices in 2010 come closer, the wisdom or folly of pushing the 3C slow train to the past will gain more speed. Gov. Strickland will have to defend it while his opponent, possibly John Kasich , a former Ohio Congressman know for his attention to balanced budgets, low-taxes and deficit hawk sentinel, could use it to show what a waste of funds it will be and ask where, exactly, Strickland expects to come up with Ohio's share of hundreds of millions, maybe billions, for a project that would necessarily have to usurp money from more important state priorities.

But until the un-electeds like the leaders of ODOT and ORDC are reigned in by their boss, they will continue to make unsubstantiated arguments for their slow train to the past and spend money as if it was delivered in a box car from CSX, all because they have control over it. Voters will be left at the train station (most communities don't have and can't afford to build) as they watch slow trains that won't go any faster than Civil War era trains chug away from them on routes to yesteryear.

John Michael Spinelli is a Certified Economic Development Financing Professional, business and travel writer and former credentialed Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is registered to lobby in Ohio and is the Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. Spinelli on Assignment is syndicated by Newstex.com and is available for subscription (99 cents/month) to Kindle owners. His tweets on Twitter can be followed @OhioNewsBureau. To send a news tip or to make a comment, email him at: ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

Amtrak Delays Rail Study Results Ohio Needs for Federal HSR Funding

Amtrak Delays Rail Study Results Ohio Needs for Federal HSR Funding

Ohio's 3C Rail Route Missing on Midwest High Speed Rail Association Midwest Hub Map

by John Michael Spinelli

August 15, 2009

COLUMBUS, OHIO: The highly awaited Amtrak study on ridership, revenue projections and station locations related to reestablishing passenger rail service between Cincinnati and Cleveland, Ohio that was supposed to be completed mid August has been delayed a month, according to a report by the Associated Press published Friday in Forbes.com. The delay will significantly compact the time Ohio officials backing this project on the eastern fringe of the Midwestern Rail Corridor have to apply for stimulus package funding for high speed rail from the Federal Railroad Administration under the administration of President Barack Obama.

The AP's Matt Leingang reported that Amtrak has put other studies of other rail lines in other states, for example the line between Billings and Missoula , Montana, ahead of the proposed $1.53 billion route Ohio transportation and rail backers say will reconnect after 42 years of no passenger train traffic Cincinnati and Cleveland via Dayton and Columbus. This approximately 250 mile route is known as the 3C passenger rail corridor. The long awaited study, as state rail officials know, is key to Ohio's application, due on October 2, for as much as $400 million in start-up funding to get passenger trains running diagonally across the state. The plan, justified with nothing but cost estimates so far, is merely a down payment on far more costly plan that has miles to travel and many obstacles to overcome before anyone can really take it seriously, despite claims of its many benefits.

Not surprisingly, state rail officials like Matt Dietrich, executive director of the Ohio Rail Development Commission, downplayed the reported delay. But when news like this is not good, downplaying it is the only option available to a state official who has been unable to say with confidence that the need for these passenger trains and therefore the ridership that will ride them is clear and obvious. "There's a lot to do and I'm very confident we're going to get it done," Dietrich told Leingang. The $400 million figure, now a $150 higher than the figure Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland and Dietrich had been telling the press and state legislators over many months without any challenges, is supposed to go to buy rail cars, build stations and make necessary upgrades on existing freight tracks so that passenger trains traveling up to 79 mph can start running in 2011.

One common reason state officials are pushing for an idea that many Ohioans think is a giant boondoggle that will tax all Ohioans for the benefit of a few by building a train system that will be slow, costly, environmentally unfriendly and will do very little to reduce road congestion is that Ohio is home to one of the most densely populated corridors without rail service in the Midwest. But that's nothing new. So what's different today than decades ago is still unclear.

One of the many big problems with the passenger rail project being pushed by Gov. Strickland and Dietrich is that it is not high speed at all. The fact is that carbon-emitting diesel locomotives will only average 57-mph because by necessity it will have to share freight rail tracks owned by CSX and Norfolk Norther, who need more freight tracks to keep up with freight rail demands and sharing existing freight tracks with passenger trains will be problematic and lead to collisions between the different purposed trains. True high speed trains, like the ones Americans see running in Europe, Japan or China, have specially built and dedicated tracks. The faster a train goes, the straighter the route must be and the more it must be obstacle free, which means crossing traffic must either go over or below these purpose-driven tracks. All these special considerations add to the high cost of real high speed trains. Costs per mile often exceed $100 million per mile, not including on-going maintenance and operational costs.

Ohio rail rooters also say that passenger rail stations or stops will become nodes for economic development. That argument can be used with any transportation node. But if that is true, then why do they refuse to ask those businesses to be part of the funding solution?

As Ohio battles its budget shortfalls, which this cycle were $3.2 billion, and as revenue projects continue to fall short, as they came in recently with respect to gaming dollars from Keno, the funds for the state's share of the 3C just are there, no matter how many stones officials say they are looking under. State officials have been wrong on a number of revenue projections, so it's reasonable to think they could be "downplaying" the public subsidy their system would need on going, which today they say is a mere $10 million a year. And the source of those funds? Dietrich and others are looking to usurp fees that restaurants, hotels and gas stations pay to advertise on blue highway exit signs. Strickland did something similar when he tried to take hundreds of millions of tobacco settlement money earmarked for programs to stop children from smoking to help plug the hole in this year's budget.

As Leingang pointed out, Ohio has studied the idea of restoring passenger service over the past 30 years, a factor that should beg even one reporter to ask why so much time has passed and why so many funds have been spent with nothing to show for it all. The AP article quotes Ken Prendergast , executive director of All Aboard Ohio, a nonprofit group promoting passenger rail, saying that all this lost time and squandered money on studies that have produced nothing helps Ohio in its application. "We know a lot about this route already,"Prendergast said in the article, implying Ohio "is more than capable of pre-writing the application and filling in the blanks once they get new data."

But another article authored by Elana Schor of DC.Streetsblog.org about the Midwest High-Speed Rail Association's work pushing for a high-speed rail network that would use Chicago as a hub and ultimately extend through eight states, shows that the 3C route doesn't even show up on the MHSRA's rail map. One has to wonder why Ohio officials are so gungho when their prized route isn't even on the map.

But as other voices rise to raise questions rail boosters can't answer in detail or in general, about the exorbitant cost of true high speed rail, who's going to pay for it and where those funds will come from, its clear that taxpayers and others concerned about the environment, road congestion and carbon emissions are not ready to roll over for a pig in a poke.

Photo of Midwestern High Speed Rail Hub courtesy of TrainWeb.org

John Michael Spinelli is a Certified Economic Development Financing Professional, business and travel writer and former credentialed Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is registered to lobby in Ohio and is the Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. Spinelli on Assignment is syndicated by Newstex.com and is available for subscription (99 cents/month) to Kindle owners. His tweets on Twitter can be followed @OhioNewsBureau. To send a news tip or to make a comment, email him at: ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

Strickland's Folly

Strickland's Folly

Ohio Budget Short on Dollars for Slow Train to the Past

It's a Question of Priorities

by John Michael Spinelli

August 5, 2009

COLUMBUS, OHIO: Two weeks ago Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland and his Director of Transportation (DOT) were among the gaggle of governors attending the high-speed rail summit in Chicago, where a pack was entered into by eight Midwest governors to form a united front for purposes of garnering as much of President Barack Obama's $8 billion in high speed rail funding as possible. With his DOT Director Jolene Molitoris in tow, Strickland became a signatory to a Midwest agreement to promote regional passenger rail and Ohio’s 3C Corridor, an approximately 270-mile trip plan to re-establish passenger trains connecting Cincinnati to Cleveland via Dayton and Columbus that's conservatively estimated to cost a cool $1.53 billion.

The purpose of the rail summit's memorandum of understanding is to coordinate regional efforts to secure federal funding for development of the Chicago Hub High-Speed Rail Corridor, which includes as a peripheral route the 3C Passenger Rail Plan Strickland and Molitoris have been promoting, despite hard evidence that ridership for it is even minimally plausible and that it will not further decimate a state budget that limped its way with one-time federal dollars and a variety of account gimmicks and fee increases to a state of balance.

In 2010, when the next exercise in balancing a state budget takes place, Obama dollars may not be available like they were for this budget and expected declines in tax revenue will further exacerbate a meltdown of state finances, making it hard to justify spending any on a rail plan that would make little sense even if times were good, which they are definitely not.

"Ohio’s central location makes our state the connection between the Chicago Hub to the west and the Northeast Corridor to the east,” Strickland said in a media release touting why he and Molitoris are behind the push to snag some of the $8 billion dedicated to fund high speed rail.

Ohio junior Senator Sherrod Brown also offered his support of the collaborative effort later in the day. "You can’t have a nationwide passenger rail system without Ohio,” he said, adding, "This agreement, coupled with new federal funds through the economic recovery package, will make the 3C corridor one step closer to becoming a reality. High-speed rail is critical to the long-term economic competitiveness of our region. By connecting Ohio’s largest cities with others cities in the Midwest, we can bring jobs and economic development to our state.”

Strickland and state transportation officials have said without being challenged that "restoring passenger rail service at conventional speed is Ohio’s first step toward implementing a high speed rail network connecting Ohio to the Midwest and the rest of the country." While it sounds good that existing freight tracks can be upgraded to accommodate fast trains, the reality is that that cannot happen. Real high speed trains need specially designed "purpose driven" tracks to handle the speeds trains in Europe handle every day. These kind of special tracks are especially expensive, but numbers for high speed rail are rarely mentioned because they present a story of cost that states like Ohio simple cannot handle, given the state of most state budgets. Ohio officials have said that their slow passenger train to the past will only average 57 mph and only reach a top speed of 90 or 100 mph after billions of dollars of freight-rail upgrades and years to do it.

As for the governors who did sign the memorandum of understanding -- Illinois Governor Pat Quinn, Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, Iowa Governor Chet Culver, Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle, Missouri Governor Jay Nixon, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley -- more voices are emerging that think they are the ones who will be taken for a ride.

Even though the media has performed as a dutiful lapdog for the hollow talking points of train advocates who overemphasize the benefits and downplay the costs to all taxpayers, some contrarian voices can be found that paint a far less rosy picture, one everyone should be aware of.

Steve Staneck, a research fellow at the Chicago Heartland Institute, recently wrote in the Alberta Lea Tribune that "If there truly were enough consumer support for high-speed rail, governments would not be involved. Private companies would provide the service and pocket the profits." Noting that the combined state deficits of the governors who signed the Midwest rail summit pack is over $28 million, Staneck chides the federal government for telling everyone not to worry about its $2 trillion budget deficit this year, and a national debt that has more than doubled to $11 trillion in the past eight years. "The government will print the money, or borrow it, or tax for it, future generations be damned," he shouts.

Another naysayer voice, that of Randal O'Toole from the CATO Institute, says of what happens when the dog catches the car: "Once we start building high-speed rail, you can expect local politicians to demand these gaps and others be filled at your expense. And don’t be surprised when the government asks you for another $1,000 or so in about 30 years to rebuild what will then be a worn-out system." O'Toole asks what all this money will produce. "Unless you live in California," he says, "don’t expect super-fast bullet trains. In Florida the FRA (Federal Railroad Administration) is considering trains with top speeds of 125 miles per hour. In most of the rest of the country, the FRA is merely proposing to boost top speeds of Amtrak trains from 79 to 110 m.p.h. A top speed of 125 m.p.h. means an average speed of only 75 to 85 m.p.h., which is hardly revolutionary. Many American railroads were running trains nearly that fast 70 years ago."

Even the Gray Lady is starting to discuss the realities of real high speed rail and what it means to all of us in a multi-part series that reveals the high cost of Euro-speed trains.

The ride Strickland and any other governor vying for a taste of federal high speed rail dollars cannot afford to take is the real cost of building Euro-style train systems. Ohio's rail plan says in clear language that it cannot happen if any contribution from the state would have a negative impact on the general fund budget of the state. In coming to terms with Republican leaders in the legislature, Strickland had to agree to a $3.2 billion budget patch that included $933 million in revenue from adding video slot machines to Ohio's seven racetracks that some critics say is an over estimate. Republican legislators criticized Strickland for using about $7 billion in one-time federal stimulus dollars, and said the next budget will be further out of whack and won't be able to rely on more federal funding.

With the specter of losing 30-40,000 more jobs, as agencies cut back staff because their state funding was cut back, the question of priorities needs to be raised. For every $1 Ohio would spend for its Harry Potter magic trick of a train system, its one less dollar that can be spent on social safety net services or any other service important to the state. Whether the 3C becomes a campaign issue in next year's race for governor is a matter of speculation. But the rising tide of dissatisfied voters who see high speed rail as a boondoggle that will only benefit consultant and lobbyists for status quo rail stems is a sign that the more voters learn about it the less they think it's a priority.

State transportation officials have already said the system will never break even and in fact will need a yearly public subsidy, an amount they say they are looking to find. Current sources for that subsidy, which is pegged on the low end at $10 million annually, may come from usurping revenue vendors pay ODOT to have their business name on highways signs and from charging exorbitant prices to riders for food and beverage sold on-board the train.

John Michael Spinelli is a Certified Economic Development Financing Professional, business and travel writer and former credentialed Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is registered to lobby in Ohio and is the Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. Spinelli on Assignment is syndicated by Newstex.com, can be followed on Twitter @OhioNewsBureau and available for subscription to Kindle owners. To send a news tip or make comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

The Heartache of it All

The Heartache of it All

New Ohio Budget May Bring Faster Meltdown

by John Michael Spinelli

July 15, 2009

COLUMBUS, OHIO: Down by nearly $20 million in uncollected state revenue after ten days of political fighting between Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland and Senate Republicans, the new $50.5 billion two-year state budget seems likely to create an economic debris field in its wake if tens of thousands of jobs are cut and service reductions for those least able to fend for themselves become reality as some have said will happen. The state of the State of Ohio is a sad one indeed.

The state that once thought itself the "Heart of it All" seems better described as the "Heartache of it All," if revenues continue to decline and one-time dollars from Washington evaporate and projected revenues from slot machines don't materialize as advocates said they would. For those in the business of sewing together and supporting the social safety-net more people will need to weather the so-called Great Recession, the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the good news is that they will only have to cut off their hand in stead of their arm, as they figure out how to make due with less. Doing more with less was the management mantra of former Republican Governor George V. Voinovich, now Ohio's Sr. Senator. Sayings like this may sound good in MBA classes or business school, but actually doing more with less for those who actually need more is harder to do than say.

With the spiraling of Ohio's economy downward, a situation long in the making that has accelerated and exacerbated in direct response to the sour economy afflicting virtually every state, the projected loss of possibly another 3,000 state jobs and upwards of 40,000 non-government jobs due to serious reductions in state aid to areas like libraries, food banks, early childhood learning initiatives, elderly in-home assistance, mental health and drug and alcohol addiction services and libraries, is news only the most unsympathetic and selfish would see as the kind of tough-love medicine needed to make Lazarus rise from the dead, find a job and get back to work.

Strickland can boast that his public school funding reform plan remained in the budget, an effort that if continued by future legislatures for the next decade is supposed to make Ohio's school funding plan constitutional again.

The Methodist minister who was against the sinful revenue that can only begot by slot machines before he reluctantly endorsed them as a revenue escape hatch for an economy worsening by the day due to shortfalls in revenue, is now just another gambler, hoping it hit it big. But his wager, that winnings from loosing players, many of whom will be from Ohio, will come close to the projected $933 million slots, is expected, not guaranteed. Of course, before the first dollar is lost, critics of the slot machine gambit vow to file lawsuits claiming the Governor is acting in contravention to the state constitution.

But gambling advocates who have long waited for this day to come say the approximately 17,500 slots that will be distributed to Ohio's seven horse racing tracks will fill a partial revenue hole in the $3.2 budget shortfall Strickland and lawmakers had to work out this cycle.

Ohio's take from allowing these digital bandits to set up shop like never before, made possible by the deal worked out between Strickland and Harris to legally immunize them from lossing lawsuits opponents said they will file to challenge the their constitutionality, may also disappoint as did Keno revenues. This shortfall would force Strickland to add insult to injury by reducing government workers by thousands more.

Republicans are hoping Strickland will take political flack from voters who are less forgiving about how he has handled the already declining finances and economy of the state, and more willing to pin the tail of this Democratic donkey. To help this happen, the budget hammered out between the House and Senate and sent to Strickland was opposed by 59 or the 65 Republicans in the General Assembly.

It would be a dark game to play of how bad things could be if Strickland had taken the advice of Republicans, who said he was making things worse by accepting about $7 billion in non-repeating federal stimulus dollars Ohio took from President Barack Obama and a Congress now controlled by Democrats. Budget-hole hunters found funds elsewhere, too, like the state's rainy day fund, its tobacco settlement monies and by a loan from a state program that helps local school districts finance buildings. But Republicans, nationally and locally, have come to see spending as bad, when they didn't see it as bad when the purpose of the funding was for the War in Iraq or Afghanistan or for subsidizing already well endowed stakeholders in the American system of health care, among other party goals.

And while Ohio's budget is balanced on paper, loosing lawsuits and not bringing in as much money from various sources as had been projected, all eyes on gambling specifically, are situations Strickland and Harris should not bet against but be prepared to fix when they blow a gasket.

The heartache of it all is that Ohio is undergoing a giant meltdown with very little it can do to turn the tide anytime soon. The human toll this budget has wrought has yet to be tallied. But as yet more jobs are lost even though macro statistics may show things are getting better by being less worse, a brighter future for Ohio will only arrive when we start having a heart for all.

John Michael Spinelli is a Certified Economic Development Financing Professional, business and travel writer and former credentialed Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is registered to lobby in Ohio and is the Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. Spinelli on Assignment is syndicated by Newstex.com, can be followed on Twitter @OhioNewsBureau and available for subscription to Kindle owners. To send a news tip or make comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

Ding Ding Ding Go the VLTs

Ding Ding Ding Go the VLTs

Can Ohio Walk Away a Winner?

Casinos Betting Race Tracks Finish Last

by John Michael Spinelli

July 6, 2009

Charles Town, West Virginia: To get a glimpse of a possible future for Ohio should Gov. Ted Strickland, with or without the help of the Ohio General Assembly, authorize video slot terminal (VLT) machines at the Buckeye State's seven horse racing venues, one need only drive to Wild and Wonderful West Virginia, as my wife and I did over the July 4th Independence Day weekend, to see the combination of live thoroughbred horse racing and spinning wheels whose "ding, ding, ding" lures many a gambler hoping to win by not loosing.

Charles Town Races & Slots, owned by Penn National Gaming (PNG), which owns and operates casino gaming, horse racing and off-track wagering facilities in many states that generate more than $2 billion in revenues and who spent tens of millions last year to defeat a statewide ballot issue in Ohio to authorize a first of its kind casino-style operation in Ohio, offers visitors 5,000 cash-less VLTs to sit and stare at, hoping to hit it the jackpot even if it is only on a penny machine.

Even though $5-a-pull VLTs stand in silent readiness close by, sometimes it makes sense to play for cents depending on your budget and tolerance for pain.

The owner of Toledo's Raceway Park horse track, PNG, which has gaming venues in Indiana, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, is a major backer of the Ohio Jobs and Growth Plan, which if approved by Ohio voters in November, would authorize casinos in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus and Toledo. According to a media release in March, Ohio would stand to benefit as the various venues are estimated to bring in $1 billion in new private investment and create 20,000 new jobs and $600 million in new annual tax revenue that would be distributed to Ohio's 88 counties and 614 school districts.

But as we know, Gov. Strickland and Senate Republicans are engaged in a contest of political wills over whether about 12,000 VLTs will be divided among Ohio's seven race tracks through either executive or legislative action. Republicans are daring Strickland to make the call himself through the Ohio Lottery Commission, while the chief executive say he needs them to approve it so as to guarantee the move water tight against expected legal challenges.

Part of the big gamble is whether the VLTs will bring to dried up state coffers the $933 million Strickland's advisers say is possible, or whether that amount will ultimately turn up far fewer dollars, as was the case with revenue generated from Keno, a game Strickland put in place in much the same way Senate Republicans say he should do with VLTs.

Walking through the maze of VLTs scattered through PNG's gaming operation in Charles Town, where players only need be 18 compared to 21 in Las Vegas, the flashing, garish neon lights that inundate the space as thoroughly as fog in San Francisco might likewise light up Ohio's future budget picture. But the odds of that happening seem unlikely in the tussle between a Governor who opposed them but who has now embraced them, and Republican legislators who want to see Strickland roll craps so they can get a leg up on him in 2010 when he runs for a second term.

Further complicating the future is whether Ohioans, who have turned gambling issues down four times in two decades, will show they have had a change of heart this year, when PNG's casino issue is placed before them.

If it wins, PNG and its partners win, turning race tracks, whose clientele is shrinking, into losers. Will Ohio, now surrounded by states with gambling, be able to catch up by keeping its gamblers in-state or will all this sound and fury over VLTs amount to nothing as the state's economic fortunes worsen and the white knight of gambling some say can save the day doesn't ride to the rescue?

Ask not for whom the VLT dings, it dings for thee.

John Michael Spinelli is a Certified Economic Development Financing Professional, business and travel writer and former credentialed Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is registered to lobby in Ohio and is the Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. Spinelli on Assignment is syndicated by Newstex.com, can be followed on Twitter @OhioNewsBureau and available for subscription to Kindle owners. To send a news tip or make comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

Strickland Admits High-Speed Rail Won't be High-Speed Anytime Soon

Strickland Admits High-Speed Rail Won't be High-Speed Anytime Soon

GOA Says FRA High-Speed Rail Initiative a "Vision...not a strategic plan."

Chicago-St. Louis Rail Corridor Gains Speed as 1st Route for Midwest Corridor

An Opeditude by John Michael Spinelli

June 25, 2009

COLUMBUS, OHIO: Calling into a rough and tumble, shock-jock radio show broadcasting from Cincinnati Wednesday, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland said Ohio needs to be included in the passenger rail system known as the Midwest Corridor, but admitted that Ohio's system would only run at slow, conventional speeds "in the near term" and that if ridership was poor, real "high-speed trains would not run in Ohio."

Strickland, a first-term Democratic Governor readying to mount a second-term campaign in 2010, spoke for a few minutes on the powerful station, answering a couple questions on his most recent proposal to plug a $3.2 billion hole in the next state budget, which by law is to start July 1. As Strickland and the Ohio House and Senate wrestle to find accommodation with each other on hundreds of differences between versions of the state budget each chamber passed in the preceding month, the political drama of who will win the day, and at what cost, is only starting to unfold. If this state budget were a weather event, high tides and fierce winds can be seen approaching on the horizon.

Eddie and Tracy, the hosts of the radio show heard on WLW700am, set the stage prior to Strickland calling in by stating their hostility for the Governor's passenger rail proposal. Jibberjabbering to kill time until they could throw questions at Strickland, the duo demonstrated their anti-rail plan bias, saying everyone they had talked to thought his idea to resuscitate long-dead passenger rail service between Cincinnati and Cleveland via Columbus or the 3-C Corridor was "a horrible idea." Others have said that if a billion dollars is going to be spent on it, it ought to at least be fast. But speed, the one essential ingredient that will attract riders, will be absent. Based on speed calculations from the Ohio Department of Transportation, the passenger train will only average 57-mph, a truly turtle pace.

Buoyant and optimistic despite the sour, declining economic health of the state and its next budget, Strickland again repeated his warning that if Ohio didn't take advantage of federal stimulus dollars being handed out by President Barack Obama's administration for the development of high-speed rail (HSR), Ohio will "be an island...because we won't be hooked into a system that involves entire Midwest."

Talking in general terms, Strickland said that if people had real choices of other modes of transportation, "they wouldn't need a car." But Ohio has cut its funding for mass transit by 60 percent over the last decade and intra-city/regional bus service is only poor at best, if it exists at all. Responding to the simple question of what's the economic upside to the state for a first-phase, conventional speed passenger train system that will cost a minimum of $1 billion to build, all the upbeat Governor could say is that all Ohio's "sports teams are urging him to proceed." One can only wonder how enthusiastic those sports team would be if they had to reach into their wallets to pay for it. Such user-fee revenues are fast becoming a tool of choice Washington is looking to more and more, as its spending comes into question by many who say huge deficits will break us all over time.

But even given what he called "modest" yearly public subsidies the system would need to cover its costs, Strickland said investing in passenger rail is less costly that investing in highways. But roads and bridges are what tie us together now, and as cars become more fuel efficient and cooler in terms of technology, drivers will opt for the privacy and convenience of their cars instead of trains that, after a six hour or more slow ride to the past, will dump them in urban cores where other transportation modes are slim to none, affectively marooning them at their destination.

"We won't establish high-speed rail in the near term," said Strickland, adding that spending upwards of $400 million was a "fairly modest first-step that would establish regular-speed [@ 79-mph] rail service." But putting the caboose before the engine, Strickland, whose job approval numbers have been ebbing as Ohio continues to lose hundreds of thousands of jobs on his watch, said, "if people didn't support it to justify further investment, then we wouldn't have to go to high speed." But for Strickland and his railroad advisers at ODOT, top high-speed means reaching 110-mph, a far cry in reality and cost from the HSR speeds Euro-style trains reach, which top out at 220-mph or more. But even with slick trains that fly along specially built, exorbitantly priced tracks that by design minimize cross traffic or signaling, even France's famous TGV trains have average speeds of 120-mph or less for their trips, according to reputable rail sources.

Strickland likely had not read through the seven-page testimony given Tuesday by Susan A. Fleming, Director of Physical Infrastructure Issues for the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) to the Subcommittee on Surface Transportation and Merchant Marine Infrastructure, Safey, and Security, Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation of the US Senate.

If Strickland or his Director of Transportation have read it, then they know the GAO has concluded that, while the potential benefits of HSR projects are many, "these projects--both here and abroad-- are costly, take years to develop and build, and require substantial up-front public investment, as well as potentially long-term operating subsidies."

Furthermore, Fleming said President Obama's allocation of a paltry $8 billion for HSR is more a "vision...than a strageic plan," and that the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), the agency his Director of Transportation headed during the Clinton Administration, has "not established clear goals for the federal government in high-speed rail--other than establishing a 'longer term goal of developing a national high-speed intercity passenger rail network of corridors'--and does not define a clear federal role for involvement in high-speed rail projects other than providing Recovery Act funds."

Fleming said the $8 billion allocated to HSR development is "only a small fraction of the estimated costs for starting or enhancing service on the 11 federally authorized high-speed rail corridors." Sustained funding for HSR will come at the cost of taking federal funds away from other national priorities like health care, national defense, and support for ailing industries, which Ohio has a lot of these days, as Detroit's Big Three automakers try to reinvent themselves or face extinction in the marketplace.

Even though the 3-C Corridor is on the periphery of the federal Midwest corridor, the heart of this system is Chicago, which all train watchers expect to benefit from handsomely, given President Obama's long ties to Illinois and the Windy City, his home prior to the White House.

Making the point that Ohio, where passenger trains stopped running nearly 42 years ago and whose rail plans are so ill formed when compared to plans of states around it, likely won't fair well in snagging any meaningful Obama dollars, the governors of Illinois and Missouri, Quinn and Nixon respectively, have teamed up to lobby for an important share of Midwest Corridor funds to complete a high-speed train route connecting Chicago to St. Louis. For Michigan Governor Jennifer Grandholm, Chicago is at the other end of a HSR route from Detroit. And for Ohio, Toledo should be more energized to connect to this route, because it will be a long, long time [if ever] until it is connected to an intra-state line that would link it to Columbus, the middle C on the 3-C route.

The fanfare of returning passenger rail service to Ohio has caused state and local officials to day dream about their village or burg being a stop on the HSR network. With the absence of state dollars in the near- or long-term to properly fund the astronomical amount needed to build a system that will still need public subsidies for as far as the eye can see into the future and that will never have the ridership capacity to make it eve break even because it will be so slow and time consuming, Strickland and his Transportation Director will need more than pom-poms and smiles to convince hard working Ohioans [those who still have jobs] that they should build and subsidize a system that only a handful of riders will ride.

The Buckeye Institute, a fiscally conservative research outfit based in Columbus, entered the fray over HSR yesterday, when it said the vision of licky-split passenger trains is just too costly to all of us and that few people would ride even fewer miles each year. Much of what the BI said appears to be sourced to Randal O'Toole, of the Libertarian think tank The Cato Institute, who makes a strong case against HSR but fails to identify viable alternatives.

But if Ohio is so desperate for cash that it is ready to shutter many of its libraries, eliminate basic health care coverage to many of its poor including children by cutting Medicaid payments and taking away food from food banks, is it really a smart move to venture down a costly path to subsidize freight rail companies who own tracks passenger trains must run on when so many other human safety nets have such gaping holes in them?

John Michael Spinelli is a Certified Economic Development Financing Professional, business and travel writer and former credentialed Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is registered to lobby in Ohio and is the Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. Spinelli on Assignment is syndicated by Newstex.com, can be followed on Twitter @OhioNewsBureau and available for subscription to Kindle owners. To send a news tip or make comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

Why Not Fund Ohio's 3-C Turtle Train with Video Slots?

Why Not Fund Ohio's 3-C Turtle Train with Video Slots?

Strickland's Policy Switch on Slots Would Let Rail Passengers Spin Their Wheels Too

by John Michael Spinelli

June 21, 2009

COLUMBUS, OHIO: The Great State of Ohio has failed four times over nearly two decades to convince its voters to allow casino gaming interests to set up shop inside its borders. From former Republican Gov. George Voinovich to today's Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, the mantra of one chief executive after another has been that gambling is a bad idea that would make the poor poorer, unlock the door to criminals and crime and enrich gaming interests at the expense of state coffers, which would be hard pressed to fund services to combat the social ills opponents of gambling say would be unleashed if the Satan of sin is allowed to run wild here.

Yet despite the moral hazards opponents of gambling predict would happen if slot machines or casino-style gambling were to come to a state already surrounded by states that allow them, the announcement last week by Strickland's budget mavens that Ohio's next budget, which by law starts July 1, has a $3.2 billion hole in it, has caused the good Governor, who has long opposed gaming and gambling, to turn the other cheek by signaling he is ready to permit the state's seven horse racing tracks to add video slot machines to their operations. Unable to resist the lure of maybe as much as $765 million coming to the aid of future budgets, by holding his nose on the ascent of maybe 14,000 one-armed bandits into Ohio's frantic search for public revenues, Strickland can no longer backtrack now that the slot machine proposal is out of the barn.

While the topic of video slot machines has percolated throughout Buckeyeville for a while, the question that sounds like a joke but which might be one practical way to fund Strickland's proposal to spend millions the state doesn't have on a slow train to the past that would chug diagonally from Cincinnati to Cleveland over more than six hours is to replace passenger seats with video slot machines. Doing so would be a perfect passenger-rail user fee, one that would allow those riding the rails to spin their wheels and have their losses fund the slow train to the past, whose need and ridership are simple but important questions state transportation leaders cannot answer with certainly but only with estimates that will only lead to real jaw-dropping if and when any real bids are let and returned.

This kind of user fee, which Washington is smiling on more and more as once dependable road and bridge funding sources like the Highway Trust Fund go broke as driver's drive less and fewer gas taxes are collected, would also liberate the rest of Ohio's taxpayers, who don't live along the corridor and who won't be using the train for various reasons, from funding the $1 billion-plus plan for a train that will only average 57-mph and will take until 2025 to be fully realized as out-dated plans project.

While it sounds like a joke to spend so much one-time federal stimulus money on a train loaded with slots, the idea was raised in all seriousness by one railroad historical society that said Strickland should do just that. One person who attended the meeting and contacted SOA, said the Ohio-only train could have the on-board slots so that the revenues would stay in the state. How would an intercity or interstate train handle slot business when traveling through states that don't permit gambling? Simple, just turn off the power to them while the train is in that state.

For such a sky-high price tag, Ohio's train to the past would be slow. Over the projected six hours or more it would take paying passengers to traverse the approximately 250 miles between Cincinnati and Cleveland, they could spin their wheels while the train spun it's steel wheels. If Lady Luck wasn't riding with them, so much the better for Ohio coffers.

Desperate times call for desperate measures, and desperate times have come to Ohio. If a Methodist minister like Strickland who has long viewed gambling as a secular revenue trap and a Biblical moral hazard can reverse course on it, maybe it's not such a far-fetched joke to think that locomotives running on steel wheels can also have scores of other kinds of spinning wheels on it, too.

John Michael Spinelli is a Certified Economic Development Financing Professional, business and travel writer and former credentialed Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is registered to lobby in Ohio and is the Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. Spinelli on Assignment is syndicated by Newstex.com, can be followed on Twitter @OhioNewsBureau and available for subscription to Kindle owners. To send a news tip or make comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

J'aime l'Energie Nucléaire

J'aime l'Energie Nucléaire

Or Why Buckeyes Should Stop Hating the French and Start Learning to Love Nuclear Power

by John Michael Spinelli

June 17, 2009

COLUMBUS, OHIO: The French have a word for it: l'énergie nucléaire, or nuclear power. While the French are usually derided by red-blooded Americans as too sissified and certainly not able to defend themselves, they have mastered many crafts, from making chocolate and cheese to little cars and great fashion. Another important but cruder craft they have mastered, one America has not seen since the late 1970s and one Russia is still haunted by, is making safe, reliable and affordable nuclear power.

So When Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland announced Wednesday that a new nuclear power plant was the project Duke Energy and other partners including French nuclear powerhouse Areva were involved with, I didn't exactly breath a sigh of relief, but I was able to exhale knowing the Frenchies would bring their brand of producing and distributing nuclear power to the southern Ohio hills of Piketon, which has its battle scars and war stories to tell of its decades long involvement with the production of nuclear fuel.

Unlike America, where movies have been made of nuclear accidents and where nuclear accidents have in fact occurred, the French now accept nuclear power without question. Their familiarization with and support of nuclear power dates from the events in the Middle East in 1973 that PBS Frontline producer Jon Palfremanthey said was their response to the "oil shock"

His program, Why the French Like Nuclear Power, show how cozy and unfearful of the China Syndrome the baguette-eating crowd has come with nuclear power.

Ohio's history with nuclear power is not without blemishes, a contrast to the track record of our democracy-loving, cafe-sitting friends abroad.

In the heady days of Arab oil embargoes that took car-centric America by surprise, Palfremanthey said the quadrupling of the price of oil by OPEC nations was indeed a shock for France because at that time most of its electricity came from oil burning plants. France had and still has very few natural energy resources, he notes, summing up France's stock of natural reserves of oil and coal as very poor.

Nuclear energy was one avenue French policy makers took to make themselves energy independent. Ready to unleash and control the mighty power only nuclear power can produce, the French proceeded to introduce the most comprehensive national nuclear energy program in history. A statistic that Americans can only marvel at, is that 56 nuclear reactors were turned on over a period of 15 years. Such a wide spread program in a country the size of Texas was able to quench its domestic thirst and have enough left over to export to other European countries. More curious is that the technology the French used wasn't their own creation, but borrowed from the U.S. and replicated at each plan, making them less expensive to build that the hodgepodge of designs we have here.up

Where France has no coal, Ohio has huge reserves of the black rock. But burning Ohio coal creates toxic emissions that affect others as it drifts eastward to New England. So while burning Ohio coal keeps some miners employed, it creates substantial health problems down wind.

In addition to what Palfremanthey pegs as the pride of independence that everyone Frenchman is born with, is their central management of big technology projects. For the average Ohioan, talk of government being competent to undertake big projects smacks of socialism. But for the French, big national projects like supersonic jets and high-speed rail, done and managed well, are par for the course.

Another big difference is the mindset Americans and French have toward scientists, engineers and lawyers. In America, lawyers rule. In France, scientists and engineers are generally looked upon highly as are educators. The average Frenchman respects and trusts technocrats, whereas the average American probably wants them fired because they represent the kind of big government some have been taught to despise.

Ohioans can also take a lesson from how the French dealt with their fear of nuclear waste and what to do with it. In addition to reusing nuclear waste in ways that delayed eventually having to deposit it safely somewhere, the French became less skittish about it when they learned that instead of burying it somewhere forever, it could be accessed in the future when future advances could better deal with it.

The alliance of companies working to build the Southern Ohio Clean Energy Park says the 700 jobs needed to operate the facility may not materialize for another ten years or more. So while the announcement is good news, it will do little now to help Ohioans who have lost their jobs as Ohio's economy twists in the wind from faltering auto sales and a national recession that is slowing but still dangerous.

John Michael Spinelli is a Certified Economic Development Financing Professional, business and travel writer and former credentialed Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is registered to lobby in Ohio and is the Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. Spinelli on Assignment is syndicated by Newstex.com, can be followed on Twitter at OhioNewsBureau and available for subscription to Kindle owners. To send a news tip or make comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com

Ohio's Slow Train Plan Likely Not Fast Enough to Snag Much HSR Funding

Ohio's Slow Train Plan Likely Not Fast Enough to Snag Much HSR Funding

US DOT Unveils Grant Criteria for High-Speed Rail Corridors

With States Paying Operating Costs, Can Ohio Handle it?

by John Michael Spinelli

June 17, 2009

COLUMBUS, OHIO: President Obama, Vice President Biden and Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood announced in April their new vision for developing high-speed rail in America. The troika of leaders outlined a collaborative effort among the Federal Government, States, railroads, and other key stakeholders to help transform America’s transportation system through a national network of high-speed rail corridors.

The US Department of Transportation announced Wednesday the application requirements, procedures and evaluation criteria that would identify which of four funding tracks rail projects from states would qualify for.

While the Midwest Corridor is among the ten high-speed rail corridors the Obama administration and the Federal Railroad Administration have identified, Ohio may be riding in the caboose based on its failure after nearly 42 years of little or no passenger rail service and on the ability of its imploding budget to handle the costs of operation, which DOT said falls squarely on state shoulders.

With about $3.2 billion dollars in budget adjustments starring down Gov. Ted Strickland and Columbus lawmakers, the news of how grim state services could get real fast would argue that Ohio needs to think twice or more about spending unknown millions on a yearly public subsidy for a slow train to the past, that seems to fall short of many DOT funding criteria when those funds could go instead to shore up government services or to pay for basic social services for needy Ohioans hit hard during this Great Recession.

Ohio is like every other state who since the announcement by Obama that $8 billion in stimulus money would be offered as a down-payment on his vision that America can have Euro-style trains flashing across the nation has cultivated its own dream of re-establishing passenger rail service, more than four decades after the last train running from Cincinnati in the southwest to Cleveland in the northeast stopped service.

Strickland and his transportation director, Jolene Molitoris, have been boldly promoting a revival of passenger rail service that would top out at 79-mph but only average 57-mph and take over six hours to make a one-way trip along the so-called 3-C Corridor. The duo had repeatedly said start up costs would be about $250 million until last week, when Strickland upped that figure to $400 million. For rail watchers, the increase of $150 million with nothing to point to was a red flag signaling that the numbers for the plan, until they are backed by real bids, will be as slippery to grasp as holding mercury in your hand. But those figures will likely not be known for years to come, based on the state master rail plan date of 2025, when we'll know whether all the time and investment put into it has been worth it.

But a preliminary review of DOT's evaluation criteria show Ohio may not be as thrilled with what it gets after states like California, Illinois, Texas or Florida take the lion's share of federal funds that will be handed out by DOT in round one this September.

A harbinger of things to come arrived in the form of an AP article that reported that the Obama administration informed Ms. Molitoris, the first woman to head Ohio's $7 billion Transportation Department (ODOT), that she should not spend $57 million of American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) dollars on more studies, including about $7 million for the HUB or high-speed rail plan. Federal officials said she should spend it instead on actual ready-to-go infrastructure projects.

Other troubling hurdles ODOT will have to overcome include describing the public return on investment, including factors such as what the transportation benefits will be, the purpose and need of the 3-C Corridor, whether a Service Development Plan is in place and, most importantly, identifying the source of operating costs for the system, which cannot come from ARRA funds but fall to states to provide.

So while nearly all Ohio cities will not become stops on the ODOT's slow train to the past, many small town mayors still harbor dreams that their community will not only be a stop but that the train will bring jobs and prosperity along with riders to their towns.

The irony of this fallacy is that high-speed trains can not travel at high-speeds if they make too many stops along the way. This point was confirmed recently when a spokesman for the Ohio Rail Development Commission issued a reminder that the more small towns that think they should be on the train route, the slower the train will be. Some small-town mayors want a train to pull into either an old, nonfunctional station or one they don't have the money to build.

But DOT makes it clear that trains that cannot hit 110-mph will take a backseat to those that can, such as the California high-speed rail project which wants to connect Los Angeles with San Francisco with trains that run above 200-mph.

Other criteria Ohio and other states will have to meet relate to economic development or jobs created especially in economically-distressed areas, energy efficiency and how it will make communities more livable.

Moreover, additional success factors such as Ohio's track record of comparable projects or reasonableness of schedule and availability of operating financial support could side-trackODOT, which is still waiting for results contained in a special study on ridership due this summer.

Molitoris, the first woman to head the FRA back in the early 1990s, has often said the 3-C is a great business opportunity even though she has had little in the way of firm or fast figures to back up her upbeat assessment of a passenger rail ride that must share existing freight tracks and will go slower than a car would and take 30 percent more time to do it in.

A possible speedbump for ODOT's slow train to the past is the mandate included in the HSR guidelines that require it to produce a National Environmental Policy Act report, that shows it has considered "reasonable alternatives," which it said is "typically conducted during the environmental review process."

The 3-C Corridor won't quality for Track 1 funding because it's not ready to go, or shovel-ready in Washington parlance, it cannot produce the kind of leverage with non-federal investments. projects this category smiles on and because it can't be completed within two years of the award.

For Track 2 projects, which focuses on collective efforts and requires a Service Development Plan be in place, including a business and investment justification with sufficient project cost and benefit estimates -- such as purpose and need, service and operations plan, and prioritized capital investment plan for infrastructure, fleet and stations/facilities, project management, stakeholder agreements and a financial plan for funding both capital and operations.

Buckeye leaders may fall into Track 3 funding, designed to build a pipeline of future high-speed inter-city rail projects by funding planning activities for applicants at an early stage of development. Fifty percent non-federal funding is required, and participation in this category is a prerequisite for participation later in Track 1 and 2 funding. Track 4, the final category, time-lines for project completion are set at 5 years.

In the end, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, a Republican and former congressman from Illinois, will have final say. The FRA said it may at its discretion not ward all $8 billion, so funds for potential future rounds of solicitations and awards that which occur after 2009 will be available.

DOT's guidelines say there is no predetermined allocation between Tracks 1 and 2 or between this and any future solicitations, and that all such distributions will cumulatively reflect the nature and timing of the selected applications.

Excluded from funding is commuter rail passenger transportation, which DOT defines as “shorthaul rail passenger transportation in metropolitan and suburban areas usually having reduced fare, multiple ride, and commuter tickets and morning and evening peak period operations.” It said Federal funding for commuter rail projects is available from Federal Transit Administration programs.

DOT noted that Amtrak may enter into a cooperative agreement with one or more States to carry out an eligible project.

As for innovation, the 3-C Corridor plan hardly seems able to make an water-tight case that it is pursuing new technology and innovation where the public return on investment is favorable, while ensuring delivery of near-term transportation, public and recovery benefits.

In answering the question about whether such a plan would promote domestic manufacturing, supply and industrial development, including U.S.-based equipment manufacturing and supply industries, much of the rail equipment used on the 3-C Corridor will come from overseas. Unlike this scenario, an innovative, advanced-train technology as has been patented by Tubular Rail of Texas, could be manufactured nearly entirely within Ohio's borders.

While Ohio mainstream media sources faithfully print the talking points of state transportation officials without questioning them on their sources or statements, which performs a disservice to the readers who need to know real facts and not fantasy, this correspondent knows that Ohio's slow train to the past, while romantic to some, is a bad idea at a bad time.

John Michael Spinelli is a Certified Economic Development Financing Professional, business and travel writer and former credentialed Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is registered to lobby in Ohio and is the Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. Spinelli on Assignment is syndicated by Newstex.com, can be followed on Twitter at OhioNewsBureau and available for subscription to Kindle owners. To send a news tip or make comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com
The Impact of IMPACT