John Kasich 'not interested' in taking on Sherrod Brown speaks volumes

After term-limited Republican Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel announced Friday that he wouldn't pursue a second chance to take on Ohio's last statewide elected Democrat, Sen. Sherrod Brown in Washington, all eyes turned to the Buckeye State's out-bound governor.

John Kasich ran and won for Ohio governor
in 2010

Gov. John Kasich, who served 18 years as a congressman and used that experience in 2016 to claim he was the most qualified of the 17 GOP candidates running for president, was quick to say through a spokesman that he wasn't interested.

Giving no reasons for his decision to stay sidelined, Kasich squanders a unique opportunity to show his leadership and political skills again in Ohio, where he won back-to-back races for governor. He also hurt Republicans' chances in Washington to keep control of the Senate by more than the current one vote majority.

Recall that in 2010, another midterm election year when voter turnout is historically lower, Kasich squeaked by Gov. Ted Strickland by just two percent with no state record to defend. This year is another midterm election. Kasich could pull off a similar victory if Republicans rally around him, as Democratic voters fail to show up in general or vote for Brown specifically.

Defeating Brown would rock his world, and possibly provide an alternative path to the White House. It would also give him six years, during which time he could run twice for POTUS, first in 2020 and then in his last year, 2024.

A regular on Sunday political talk shows these days, the former Fox News commentator and Lehman Brothers banker, may have angered Ohio and national Republicans more than he has already, now that he's parlayed his disastrous lost in 2016—winning one state (Ohio) and one Electoral College vote—into anti-Trump celebrity. 

While other Ohio Republicans of lesser stature will fill the avoid Mandel created with his sudden departure, Kasich running from the battle out without explanation sends another message that won't help him when 2020 rolls around and his ego drives him to make a third run for the White House. 

Knocking off Sen. Brown, the last Democrat in Ohio to hold a statewide seat, albeit in Washington, would turn Kasich into a political rock star. National media would swarm over him, and he'd be a formidable figure at the center of national public policy, something he's wanted and something he said he was good at, dating back to the late 1990s when then GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich promoted him to House Budget Committee chairman. Kasich took credit for balancing the national budget for the first time since men walked on the moon, and weigh-ed in on his contributions to reforming welfare during the Clinton presidential years. He knew Washington and how to get things done, and says he turned around Ohio, going from being broke to $2 billion in rainy day funds.

Sherrod Brown is likewise a formidable politician who has decades of responsible service in Ohio before voters sent him to Washington in 2006, when he beat Ohio's current attorney general and maybe next governor, Mike DeWine.

Kasich had a similar golden opportunity in 2016 to be a leader, when Republicans, Independents and others sought a messiah to step out of the rubble of that election year and undertake an independent or third-party try to defeat Donald Trump. Kasich, who wrote a book about a divided America following his terrible loss, repeats his honed narrative that he knows how to bring people together to solve big problems. 

Even though the proof of bring people together as he says he can is sorely missing in Ohio, national media has no interest of his record back home, which Brown and Democrats would shred with ease and glee. Kasich would be covered like Jesus returned if he could beat an energized and well-funded Brown back home this year.  

Kasich's silence about why he declined conveys another message state and national media would be uncomfortable writing about. The message Kasich just sent is that he doesn't have the courage or the political chops and popularity in Ohio to beat Brown, as he seeks a third term in the U.S. Senate to represent a red state that voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton by almost five-hundred thousand votes.

If that's the case, avoiding a confrontation with Brown is a smart decision for Kasich for now. Saying how great you are without having to prove it may still work for him as he hibernates over the next three years. 

Brown beat Mandel handily six years ago in 2012, and polling shows the Democratic populist and liberal lion, whose agenda is worker-centric compared to Kasich's and other Republicans' CEO-centric agenda, will be a tough race for any GOP candidate.

History shows that independent candidates and third-parties in presidential elections have a dismal record. It's augers poorly for 2020 to be the exception to the rule. If Kasich is banking on a White House win in three years, declining to jump into this race this year only to wait to run as an independent or Trump challenger in 2020 means he'll be a three-time loser on the national stage.