Friday, January 19, 2018

Gov. Kasich extends subpar job growth to 61 months

Being above average is better than being below average, most everyone would probably say. Going on eight years in office, Gov. John Kasich has spent over five of them—61 months to be precise—below average in job creation when compared to the national average.

While some media and reporters prefer to fixate on the unemployment rate, which dipped one-tenth of one percent (4.8 to 4.7) from the previous month, the larger story is the length of time, now 61 months, Ohio couldn't meet the national job creation average.

The Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data Friday on employment and unemployment in Ohio during December 2017. Ohio gained 2,500 jobs seasonally adjusted in December 2017, according to analysis performed by George Zeller of Cleveland.

With a reputation for accuracy that's never been challenged, Zeller told this reporter today that the current Ohio job growth rate is now 0.98 percent while the current USA job growth rate is now 1.50 percent.
"December 2017 is the 61st consecutive month when Ohio's job growth rate has been below the USA national average," Zeller said, adding, "That lengthy streak of sub-par job growth in Ohio has now reached five full years and one additional month."
Zeller pointed out that during 2016, Ohio gained only 49,700 jobs seasonally adjusted, the slowest annual job increase since the end of the Great Recession. For 2017, Ohio gained only 38,500 jobs, "an even slower and highly alarming figure that replaces 2016 as the fewest number of jobs generated in Ohio during any year since the end of the Great Recession."

The most positive development in today's new figures, Zeller notes, is the 5,000 jobs gained in durable manufacturing. That was the positive news. Negative news showed that Ohio lost 1,400 jobs in Health Care and Social Assistance during December.
"This disappointing figure in Ohio's normally fastest growing industry contributed heavily to Ohio's slow growth in December," he said.
Gov. Kasich brags about reducing government jobs, but the addition of more government jobs would do him a world of good. A gain of 1,900 jobs in state government covered losses of 1,100 in local government and a loss of 100 federal government jobs. "But, a loss of 4,700 Government jobs between December 2016 and December 2017 continued to be a leading cause of the slow sub-par employment growth in Ohio," Zeller points out.

And for reporters who fixate only on the unemployment rate, they fail to mention that Ohio's rate of 4.7 percent is higher than the USA unemployment rate of 4.1 percent in December, for the 16th consecutive month.

Zeller schools media and reporters who fail to see the significant of the numbers delivered to them.
"Ohio's improved unemployment rate came from an increase of 12,000 employed workers and a decline of 9,000 unemployed workers, for a net improvement of 21,000 workers. That is not possible during a month when Ohio gained only 2,500 jobs, showing that the accuracy of the Ohio unemployment rate is poor once again this month. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics does not sample any of the 50 states in its model-based unemployment estimates for states. Thus, the accuracy of the employment estimates consistently is far better than the accuracy of state level unemployment statistics."

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