Hunting Black Swan Will Be GOP Swan Song

Black Swan Hunting Will be GOP's Swan Song

Goodwill Hunting for Obama Successes Signals GOP "Nightmare" Strategy Wrong Weapon at Wrong Time




with John Michael Spinelli

Columbus, Ohio: A Black Swan, as defined by author Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book is "the impact of the highly improbable." Black Swans, because they are so rare, unforeseen and powerful, should command respect and not be hunted as a trophy to be mounted for display. But the GOP and its future leaders clearly want to bag and mount the head of America's first Black Swan president, Barack Obama, an African-American whose election, while highly improbable to say the least, will have an historic impact on the fate of a nation trying to surface for air from a sinking ship of state.

Changing the tone in Washington, according to Republicans and the GOP base who acted as if they were deaf, dumb and blind to the reckless presidency of their two-term leader George W. Bush, is all about letting the hounds loose to dog Mr. Obama from Inauguration Day forward, hoping to trip him up whenever and wherever possible.

The GOP, which got shellacked by voters in both 2006 and last year, signaling what some election observers see as a post-election alignment to left-of-center politics, seems poised to nominate as their next chairman of the Republican National Committee, candidates who haven't learned the lesson voters delivered to them last November and who want to double-down on failed policies that have lost support of Latinos, first-time and independent voters, not to mention African Americans and not a few Republicans who switched parties this year to again court their shrinking base of loyalists.

South Carolina GOP chair Katon Dawson says in a recent video that he will "expose at every turn what Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid want to do to this country," in terms of "bigger government, limiting your freedoms."

Dawson pledged to become the Democratic trio's "worst nightmare" if elected to lead the GOP out of the swamp voters put them in over two election cycles.

Dawson's competitor for the post is Ken Blackwell,the former candidate for Governor of Ohio, who's running for RNC Chairman is popular among neo-conservatives but unpopular among Ohio Democrats who blame him for President winning Ohio and the White House in 2004, when he was Ohio Secretary of State. Blackwell, an African-American born in poverty in Cincinnati but who has since gained fame and fortune, makes his case that Mr. Obama's stimulus plan is nothing more than a "Trojan Horse" to create government jobs, which he says favor Democratic voters. "Creating 600,000 new jobs might help cement Virginia in the Democrat column, making it harder for Republicans to retake the White House," the Bible backing Blackwell wrote in a column at Townhall.com.

Ken Blackwell told Ben Smith of Politico that he doesn't think his uncompromising stands and lack of interest in getting along with sufficiently conservative would hurt him with the pols who compose the Republican National Committee. Blackwell, big in stature and bold in action, said he only has problems with three potential intra-party foes.

One of those three is out-going Ohio GOP Chair Bob Bennett, who did not endorse Blackwell for the national GOP post and who begrudgingly backed the Cincinnati tycoon in a lopsided loss to Ted Strickland in Ohio in 2006. Bennett, who recently retired from the Ohio GOP leadership post he's held since 1988, took a blatant swipe at Mr. Blackwell in a letter to RNC members. The letter was a reminder of how bitter the state's GOP remains over Mr. Blackwell dragging it down in a nearly historic defeat two years ago.

"As the longest serving state chairman on the Republican National Committee, I have personally witnessed many of our successes and failures. I have seen what works and what doesn't and I have recognized those chairmen whose leadership has been effective and who know how to win elections. With that in mind, I am pleased to offer my wholehearted endorsement to Mike Duncan." [Excerpt from Bennett's letter]

Bennett's successor, Kevin Dewine, 41, a four-term Ohio House member, was unanimously elected to recast his state party. "Going forward, we must be brutally honest with ourselves: The last four years have not been grand for the Grand Old Party,"DeWine said in published reports. "In many ways, the party of Lincoln too often has been divided against itself." He cautioned that a resurgence will not happen overnight and maybe not in two years. perhaps not in the next election in 2010, when he has a shot at retaking the offices of governor, attorney general and secretary of state.

As the GOP licks its wounds delivered by voters who whipped it as punishment for eight years of state and federal policies that have driven many states and the nation as a whole into a deep ditch, manifested by massive job losses, an economic meltdown of staggering proportions and unilateral decisions to start wars of political convenience that have resulted in the death of thousands of American soldiers and hundreds of thousands of dead men, women and children in Iraq and Afghanistan, the GOP will find that trying to hunt down America's first black Black Swan will backfire on them, given the hope by Americans that Mr. Obama be give ample time to undo the massive mess their leaders created.

A daily tracking poll byGallup, on the percentage of American who are confident or not confident in Mr. Obama's ability to be a good president, show those who believe he is up to the job is between 66-71 percent. An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted recently show that 80 percent of those surveyed think Mr. Obama is handling the presidential transition well. The same poll shows that 70 percent believe Congressional Republicans will be of little help or none at all to Mr.Obama's agenda. Seventy-one percent think Mr. Obama has a mandate to work for major new social and economic programs, and should not pursue small policy changes.

With numbers like these available to them, GOP leaders, whether local, state or federal, should put down their hunting weapons, and let the political Black Swan that is Mr. Obama engage in free-range feeding and not try to shoot it on sight, thereby killing the goose they hope will lay many golden eggs.

The old, tired GOP mantra that small government, less regulation and reduced taxes is the answer to prosperity for all has been debunked from eight years under Mr. Bush and from nearly a generation of such propaganda that started with the rise of "borrow and spend" started with the Reagan Revolution of 1980.

Incoming White House chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, spoke on NBC's "Meet the Press" Sunday about deficit spending and how Republicans have turned on a dime from saying it doesn't matter to saying it matters. Emanuel said he finds calls now by GOP leaders and supporters, like Blackwell, Dawson or political icon Rush Limbaugh, to be super wary of spending taxpayer dollars to lift America out of the single greatest economic collapse since the Great Depression ironic. He said it comes from the same Republicans who championed such spending over the last eight years when it came from their party's president for wars and tax breaks for the rich.

What GOP leaders should be very afraid of is not Mr. Obama's $800 or more billion spending plan, but his renewed and invigorated campaign to build on the network of supporters and campaign fund contributors he built on during his two-year odyssey to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

In an email to his campaign database Saturday, three days before he takes the oath of office for President, Mr. Obama congratulated his millions of supporters for building the "largest grassroots movement in history." Mocked and derided by the GOP pick for Vice President, a Black Swan candidate in reverse, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin derided and denigrated community organizers positions without any "official responsibility." Mr. Obama's young-man job was that of a community organizer in Chicago.

Now the nation's community organizer-in-chief, with official responsibilities galore, President Obama is charged with extricating America from a deep dark hole neither Ms. Palin nor her political colleagues warned against in the first place. Mr. Obama is rallying those who brought him this far, challenging them to keep going because his movement to bring "Change we can believe in" is just starting.

In his pledge for the future video, Mr. Obama told his volunteers and supporters that they "shaped the future of this country" and told them their movement is "to important to stop growing now." He announced a new effort, "Organizing for America," a new initiative to build on campaign issues like stopping the War in Iraq, health care for all and developing new energy sources that will power the economy and protect the environment.

He said such efforts will necessarily be lead by volunteers, grassroots leaders and regular citizens. GOP leaders should heed his call for expanding and re-powering a juggernaut of organization and technology that took them to the cleaners.

If GOP leaders, elected officials and supporters think all they have to do is say "they lost their way" and want to return to core principles that put their party and its supporters first and the nation second, they will wake up again in 2010 to the news that their party, made up mostly of white, rural, fiscal and social conservatives, will be smaller and more impotent.

"What you built can't stop now," he said, adding, "Together with our partners at the Democratic National Committee and its new chairman, Governor Tim Kaine, this movement will continue organizing and bringing new people into the political process." In solemn words, Mr. Obama said the "challenges facing our country are too great, and our journey to change America is just beginning."

Obama's inaugural address will will focus on "where we are as a country and who we are as a people," according to David Axelrod, Obama's senior campaign adviser who will now advise him in the White House, speaking on ABC's Sunday show "This Week" with George Stephanopolous. Axelrod said "we're in the mess we're in" due to Republican policies that "doubled our debt in just a few years." Like Emanuel, he, too, didn't hear critics ofObama's spending plan be critical of President Bush's spending. Axelrod said Obama's plan is not just spending for the sake of spending. Instead, he said Obama's spending constitutes investments on a variety of issues, all of which will pay long-term dividends. He said they are thoughtful, not frivolous.

The Black Swan has spoken. The GOP should listen well. If they don't, their swan song will be to self-select themselves onto the endangered species of political parties.


John Michael Spinelli is an economic development professional, business and travel writer and former Ohio Statehouse political reporter. He is also Director of Ohio Operations for Tubular Rail Inc. To send a tip or comment, email ohionewsbureau@gmail.com